Barny, when I find time I will list them (I worked on over 50 races yesterday & cannot recall offhand which they were)

Regards your comment -

"Horses are fit muscular beast weighing say 600kg. To think that 3.5kg, which is 0.58% of it's overall weight is in the top 10 of influencing factors on the outcome of a race is something I cannot grasp at all. It would crap more than that in the mounting yard .......

Maybe weight is in the top 20 of variables, but it's not in the top 10."

- if this had any element of truth to it then why would we have Handicappers or WFA scales etc etc, techniques & theories which have developed over the last century or so??

If weight had no meaning whatsoever then why wouldn't we just let them all run around with whatever on their backs, jeez I might even get a gig, as I used to ride the a heck of a trail pony back in the day

Little hint for you - 'dead weight'

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"Now let me get this straight - Whatever I do don't bet this horse?"

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“First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.”

In Sydney and Melbourne yesterday the 18 winners carried 2.5 kg more than the 18 runners up.

Thanks for the hint Surely a kilo or two couldn't possibly be a top ten influencing factor norisk ?? If it was, why then is saddlecloth number 1 the most prolific winner ?? And Melbourne Cup winners have won with plenty of weight !!

Barny, you are making the incorrect assumption that the top weight cannot be advantaged by the allocated weights!

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"Now let me get this straight - Whatever I do don't bet this horse?"

Here are the Win Relative Frequencies for various weights both carried and allocated. Sample 1.9 million.

Weight and Win Relative Freq.
Weight Carr.. Alloc. Weight ...Carr..... Alloc.
50 ... 0.501 ... 0.518 ... 56 ... 1.212 ... 1.170
51 ... 0.627 ... 0.508 ....57 ....1.386 ....1.349
52 ....0.651.... 0.512 ....58 ....1.451 ....1.428
53 ....0.692 ....0.602 ....59 ....1.549.... 1.566
54 ....0.802 ....0.761 ....60 ....1.557 ....1.556
55.... 1.044 ....1.003 ....60+. 1.272 ....1.292

55 kgs is the "advantage limit". Of course it doesn't mean that <55kgs can't win it simply provides an indication of the size of the advantage.

I think that for general reasons 55 to 58 kg makes a good rule as this drops a lot of poor horses and protects form carrying too much weight over longer distances.

Hi Demodocus,

Thanks for the Weight Win Relative Frequencies.

Is that for all Australian races 7 days a week?

Is it possible to get the results for Metropolitan races only?

With the raising of the minimum weight without a corresponding rise in the top weight the toppie will be more advantaged than ever. However the price will adjust accordingly taking away any overall advantage from a punting perspective.

Just need to keep an eye out for value such as Perth R7 last Saturday, ridiculous price esp on BF

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"Now let me get this straight - Whatever I do don't bet this horse?"