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Originally Posted by Barny
Surely there were some ratings that selected Linton, the winner of the Stradbroke. After all, this race was full of horses with plenty of exposed form!!, but it seems that these are the types of races where ratings fall down the most. How come??
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Hi Barny,
One could also ask, why didn't the bookies open it as favourite?
The facts were, whether using ratings or not, Linton had recently raced in Adelaide in Listed and Group3 company beating the likes of Road Warrior and Lucky Penny, which didn't exactly 'rate' it that highly. I suspect the bookmakers and ratings experts took all of these factors into the equation and put up an initial price of $41. It was obviously liked by a few prudent punters as it started at $31.
Question:
When you say 'these are the types of races where ratings fall down' could you be more specific?
1/ What races are you referring to? Group handicap races with large fields run in QLD?
2/ Which ratings are you referring to?
It's my experience that the ratings I use work best in better class races.
Reading ratings is like reading form, it is simply a figure assigned to a particular run. I prefer rating services that rate every single run of a horses career, so that you can follow the ebbs and flows.
In terms of the Stradbroke, I actually left the race alone as I couldn't make hide nor hair of it in the end. Mostly due to the wet weather leading up to the race, which left me struggling to ascertain who was in the best form, ratings or not.
Sometimes it pays to admit a race has you beaten and enjoy the spectacle. Money stays in your pocket.
To conclude though, if you assume there is a ratings team that had Linton on top, one could also assume they own a large Island in the tropics?....
I had Linton on Weights and Measures coming about 6th, and I think the glorious 'saloon passage' he enjoyed along the rails made up many lengths on the opposition. You'll need a ratings program that will be able to predict "from barrier 21 Linton will go straight to the back, have a leisurely run till the 500m, then not pass a horse and win pulling away" Great when it happens....