Part 1

The conviction based on illusions.

Have you ever seen the road shimmer in the heat and swear that you are seeing a puddle in the distance? Or have you been lucky enough to see an even more elaborate Fata Morgana? Google it, there are some far out images to show what can happen. Your mind is deceived by the apparent evidence based on what you perceive. A mirage!

While harmless illusions like the above are fun and intriguing, there is another type of mirage that is far from harmless fun. Illusions that I’m talking about are punting illusions and they cost punters money and time; even more devastating is the fact that most of punters are not even aware of them. In fact I know some well respected punters that are so blinded by their convictions that their demise and the demise of others is based purely on the fact that they observe without evidence.

I should clarify; without long-term evidence. What you observe over a short period of time or a small sample of selections is NOT evidence. Yet every day, hundreds, if not thousands of punters Australia wide invest their money based on conviction obtained by seeing or worst still by just accepting such ‘evidence’.

A personal example of this arose the other day when a friend of mine wanted to eliminate Northern Territory from his punting. There is enough ‘evidence’ that could sway many to extrapolate such idea into a ‘maxim’; poor liquidity, small fields, way too many poor quality horses as it’s often the last destination for many horses being sold down the ranks (or is it up the country). What about the heat? I could go on, these are just a sample of the general ‘ambiance of thoughts’ that many have about NT as a punting destination; for others its SA or TAS. Others create cultivate such ideas about distances or TAB numbers or about just about anything else associated with punting.

The problem starts when such ‘thought ambiance’ meets some ‘cold hard facts’ obtained from observation of few days/weeks; we have all of a sudden a ‘supported theory’ that becomes ingrained into the punters mind. Such evidence is then further reinforced any time he/she looks at the results. Our mind is great at distinguishing patterns, especially when we are focusing on them.

My friend wanted to eliminate NT because his ‘thought ambiance’ meet with the fact that he lost a few bets in a row on NT races, over a few weeks; on short favourites no less, while being in a general betting slump. Such powerful combination of emotional distress over an extended time frame created the need to do something about it. Once I would have wholeheartedly agreed with him, however now I don’t; this is thanks to the work I have done for Ratings2win programming and researching.

I have learned that unless an idea can be tested, over thousands of samples and years of data then a conviction I have could be an unfounded mirage.

Using the tools that I have at my disposal I am able to test my ideas to see the long-term and the true effect of any decisions I want to take. I can tell you that I am mostly disappointed with the results of my ideas; that is the nature of this game, you try and try and try. The difference is that I am disappointed in one test or a series of tests without any financial damage and without a dint in my betting confidence. More importantly when I find something that works, I am then confidant that it will continue to work! I just does!

Take the opposite situation of the general punter; they test their conviction over long-term by punting with their hard eared money and as the true results materialise their betting confidence dwindles which in turn makes it possible for them to make further mistakes and illogical decisions. As a result they start to form new ‘thoughts’ that are really destructive; “can’t be done”, “it’s all crap”, ”the gods are against me” and so on.

The time they have wasted is irrecoverably gone and now to boot they have even more mental crap to deal with and it’s likely that even if they come across a long term profitable method they will discard it at the first sign of trouble! They will then continue jumping from method to method while being in a tail spin or they discontinue their punting in total disillusionment with the whole industry and become bitter, cynical and angry and often broke.

So, finally what is the real truth regarding the performance of the betting method my friend was so quick to ‘analyse’ on his knowledge and the ‘evidence’? Based on the last 4 years the strike rate is 80% and nearly 16% positive POT. Oh yea .... Those short priced favourites that no one can win on and NT racing that is well below par, produce great profit from a method based on the unemotional results of tested evidence. A stark reminder that what you are basing your betting decisions might be nothing but a mirage!

Part 2 to follow

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Michal - Ratings2Win Pty Ltd
R2W Axis - Axis is Australia's leading horse racing software and database;
with sophisticated form analysis tools and accurate horse performance ratings for TAB meetings.
http://www.ratings2win.com.au/