nar see in person only imo

LG, that's a difficult one for a couple of reasons, but firstly you need a formguide like The Sportsman or others that give previous in running positions, from there you can work out the "most likely" position.
However, it depends greatly on the barrier, and the pace.
A JB mentioned, it's easier to look at video replays to determine if the horse made ground from back in the field.
On or just off the pace has a much better record overall, with backmarkers and midfielders struggling to make back to back wins. (The strike rate is much lower).
When I did the speedmap excercise, I found many that got it thereabouts, but no speedmap was totally accurate, the accuracy rate was lifted by the horses with very obvious running style. I'm utilising video replays more each day than I ever did to note many things not indicated in the formguides.

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Thanks for your input mate- I guessed that there was no simple answer, but had to ask anyway to get your take. The 3 bits of data I can see from previous runs in the form guide that I thought might help were..

1. Average early speed
2. Inrunning position (a) settling (b) 800m (c) turn
3. Tempo of race e.g. Suited to front runners / back markers / no bias etc

Also - perhaps noted trainers who prefer to have their horses run off the pace (not sure how to tell or how feasible to find out!)

Cheers LG

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Bonne Nuit - nominated Moonee Valley Saturday
Gregers - nominated Moonee Valley Saturday
Rain Affair - nominated Warwick Farm Saturday

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On the subject of gear changes, here's an illustration.
Taking only those fancied in the market for Geelong and Cessnock today.

Cessnock R1
Hint Of Courage $2.15 fave, no gear changes, WON
Zippity Zou $6.50, Tongue Tie on, unplaced

Cessnock R2
Galring $4.00 fave, no gear changes, 3rd
Casino Queen $4.80, no gear changes, WON
Oxana $6.00, no gear changes, 2nd

Cessnock R3
Quietly Confident $2.05 fave, blinkers on, WON
Salterton $6.00, no gear changes, unplaced
Natural Grey $6.50, ************s on, unplaced

Cessnock R4
Sorel Point $2.15 fave, no gear changes, WON
Alimony $4.00, no gear changes, unplaced

Cessnock R5
Poulette $3.00 fave, no gear changes, unplaced
Lovethebeaches $4.60, no gear changes, unplaced
Leaders Road $7.00, no gear changes, WON

Cessnock R6
Sukraji $4.00 fave, no gear changes, WON
Believe It $4.80, no gear changes, unplaced
Madame Fly $7.00, no gear changes, unplaced
Excellent Style $7.00, no gear changes, 2nd
Miss Mackillop $7.00, no gear changes, unplaced

Cessnock R7
Non Stop Rock $2.10 fave, no gear changes, 2nd
Mount Earnslaw $8.50, no gear changes, unplaced

Cessnock R8
Scarlatti $2.90 fave, no gear changes, 2nd
Just For Keeps $4.50, no gear changes, unplaced
Dancing Paris $9.00, Blinkers FIRST time, ************s off FIRST time, unplaced*

Geelong R1
Ysabelle $2.10 fave, no gear changes, 2nd
Promise To Rock $4.30 no gear changes, WON
Overnighter $6.00, no gear changes, unplaced

Geelong R2
St Chloe $1.95 fave, no gear changes, WON
Master Dee Art $4.20, no gear changes, unplaced
Kentucky Gem, $4.20 Blinkers FIRST time, 2nd*

Geelong R3
Critical Angel $1.90 fave, no gear changes, WON
Racing Nadine $5.50 ,no gear changes 2nd
Fine Diamond $5.00 , no gear changes, unplaced

Geelong R4
Jaja Malu $4.20 fave, no gear changes, 2nd
Damysus $6.00, no gear changes, unplaced
Singersongwriter $6.00, no gear changes, unplaced
Biancrazy $6.60, Bllinkers off FIRST time, 3rd*

Geelong R5
Leonne $3.10 fave,tongue tie FIRST time, 3rd*
Street Crime $4.20, Cross Over Noseband FIRST TIME, Tongue Tie FIRST TIME unplaced***
Rogue Force $5.00, no gear changes, 2nd

Geelong R6
Good And Hot $3.10 fave, Blinkers off again, 2nd
Black Jack Boy $3.20, no gear changes, unplaced
Oamaru Princess $5.00, no gear changes, WON

Geelong R7
Chosen Son $5.00 fave, no gear changes, 2nd
Roman Pleasure $5.50, no gear changes, unplaced
Armani Black $6.50, no gear changes, WON

Geelong R8
Dats A Lass $3.20 fave, no gear changes, unplaced
Dark Pearl $4.20, no gear changes, 2nd
Platinum Panther $7.00, no gear changes, unplaced
Grandmaster Dash $7.00, no gear changes, 3rd

Geelong R9
Beau Jez $3.30 fave, no gear changes, WON
Bated Breath $4.00, no gear changes, 3rd
Mount Zero $4.80, no gear changes, 2nd
Babur $6.50, no gear changes, unplaced


No gear changes:
44 horses in the market
11 winners
Return 43.05
Loss 0.95 @ tattsbet fixed odds
LOT 2.16%

Blinkers / ************s on:
2
1 winner
Return 2.05
Profit 0.05 @ tattsbet fixed odds
POT 2.50%

Blinkers / ************s first time on:
2
0 winners
LOT 100%

Tongue Tie on:
1
0 winners
LOT 100%

Tongue Tie on first time:
1
0 winners
LOT 100%

Crossover noseband on first time:
1
0 winners
LOT 100%

Favourites, no gear changes:
14 favourites
6 winners
Return 15.45
Profit 1.45 @ tattsbet fixed odds
POT 10.36%

Favourites Blinkers / ************s on:
1
1 winner
Return 2.05
Profit 1.05 @ tattsbet fixed odds
POT 105.00%

When it comes to favourites, I like to note blinkers / ************s first time, blinkers / ************s again, tongue tie again or no gear changes.

Hint Of Courage $2.15 fave, no gear changes, WON
Galring $4.00 fave, no gear changes, 3rd
Quietly Confident $2.05 fave, blinkers on, WON
Sorel Point $2.15 fave, no gear changes, WON
Poulette $3.00 fave, no gear changes, unplaced
Sukraji $4.00 fave, no gear changes, WON
Non Stop Rock $2.10 fave, no gear changes, 2nd
Scarlatti $2.90 fave, no gear changes, 2nd
Ysabelle $2.10 fave, no gear changes, 2nd
St Chloe $1.95 fave, no gear changes, WON
Critical Angel $1.90 fave, no gear changes, WON
Jaja Malu $4.20 fave, no gear changes, 2nd
Chosen Son $5.00 fave, no gear changes, 2nd
Dats A Lass $3.20 fave, no gear changes, unplaced
Beau Jez $3.30 fave, no gear changes, WON

I think that's a fairly impressive statistic!

Then LAY all horses in the market, that are blinkers or ************s off / off again, tongue tie first time, crossover nose band first time,

Biancrazy $6.60, Bllinkers off FIRST time, 3rd*
Leonne $3.10 fave,tongue tie FIRST time, 3rd*
Street Crime $4.20, Cross Over Noseband FIRST TIME, Tongue Tie FIRST TIME unplaced***
Good And Hot $3.10 fave, Blinkers off again, 2nd

Reason being, horses racing first time in blinkers or ************s, can improve lengths, tongue tie first time is something the horse struggles to cope with unless he has raced before with it and learned how to breathe. Plenty of horses win with tongue ties on, once they are used to them.
Blinkers, ************s off, off again etc, unless replaced with the former or latter means it didn't work and they will revert to the same bad habits in running.
Above, four horses well in the market, returned a good lay profit for the day.

It's not all beer and skittles, but overall the stats add up for both back and lay methods.

Crossover noseband and tongue tie first time was a huge indicator to go in solid for a decent liability.

It's the reasons behind the statistics that are important, and has more to do with understanding a horse reaction to new gear.

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GEAR CHANGES

Approach these only if favourite.
Any favourite not listed, back:
Favourite determined by Tattsbet fixed odds.

Canterbury
Race 1
1.Above All ************s FIRST TIME (Back)
2.Danas Best Blinkers AGAIN (Back)
5.Tamanu Park Kyneton Nose Band FIRST TIME (Lay)
8.War Horse Ear Muffs FIRST TIME, Tongue Tie FIRST TIME (Lay)

Race 2
3.Onadowntowntrain Blinkers FIRST TIME, Noseroll OFF FIRST TIME, Tongue Tie FIRST TIME (Lay)
4.Senior Council Blinkers AGAIN, Gelded (Back)
6.Castigate Tongue Tie FIRST TIME (Lay)

Race 3
4.Point Made Blinkers OFF FIRST TIME, Visor FIRST TIME (No bet)
7.Our Desert Warrior Gelded, Lugging Bit AGAIN, Norton Bit OFF FIRST TIME (Lay)

Race 4
1.Hydro Blinkers OFF AGAIN (Lay)
8.Respected Tongue Tie FIRST TIME (Lay)

Race 5
8.Ameliorate Blinkers OFF FIRST TIME (Lay)
9.Grecian Melody Tongue Tie FIRST TIME (Lay)
12.Oh My Papa ************s FIRST TIME (Back)
16.Pinocchio Tongue Control Bit OFF FIRST TIME, Tongue Tie AGAIN (Lay)

Race 6
11.Barachello Blinkers FIRST TIME (Back)

Race 7
4.Okane Blinkers OFF FIRST TIME (Lay)
5.That's a Good Idea Blinkers AGAIN (Back)

11.Smart Patrol Blinkers OFF AGAIN, Visor FIRST TIME (no bet)

Sandown Hillside
Race 1
3.Gearstick Blinkers OFF FIRST TIME, Visor FIRST TIME (no bet)
4.Razzle Dazzle Rock Blinker Near side On OFF FIRST TIME (Lay)

Race 2
1.Dramatique Tongue Tie FIRST TIME, ************s FIRST TIME (Lay)
2.Force Twelve Tongue Tie OFF FIRST TIME (Lay)
4.Martelletto Blinkers OFF FIRST TIME, Noseroll FIRST TIME (no bet)
8.Are the Bungs In Blinkers FIRST TIME (Back)
12.Miss Eccles Blinkers FIRST TIME (Back)
16.Valtari Lugging Bit FIRST TIME, ************s FIRST TIME (Lay)

Race 4
7.Bishops Castle Blinker Near side On OFF FIRST TIME, Bubble Cheeker Near Side On OFF FIRST TIME, Norton Bit FIRST TIME (Lay)

Race 6
4.Zippa the Rippa Barrier Blanket FIRST TIME, Tongue Control Bit FIRST TIME, Tongue Tie OFF FIRST TIME, ************s OFF FIRST TIME (Lay)

Race 8
1.Westsouthwest Nasal Strip FIRST TIME (Back)
15.Montoya Heights Nasal Strip OFF FIRST TIME (Lay)

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GEAR CHANGES

Approach these only if favourite.
Any favourite not listed, back:
Favourite determined by Tattsbet fixed odds.

Canterbury
Race 1
Nissile Unplaced
Race 2
Forever Loved WON $4.60
Race 3
7.Our Desert Warrior Gelded, Lugging Bit AGAIN, Norton Bit OFF FIRST TIME (Lay) WON (Accident)
Race 4
Charge Missile WON $5.00
Race 5
Fast And Sexy WON $4.60
Race 6
Ecuador 2nd
Race 7
5.That's a Good Idea Blinkers AGAIN (Back) WON $3.30

Sandown Hillside
Race 1
Self Sense WON $2.20
Race 2
General Web 3rd
Race 3
Are There Any WON $2.75
Race 4
Grane unplaced
Race 5
Office Bearer WON $2.10
Race 6
April Rose unplaced
Race 7
Don't Get Excited WON $2.30
Race 8
Te Karaka 3rd

14 selections
26.85 return
12.85 profit
91.78% POT

Sorry for the late update, suffering from H.I. (Human Influenza).
Will take me a few days to catch up on emails etc.

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Adding to the Stable of striders:
Bonne Nuit (nominated Saturday @ The Valley)
Flash Of Doubt* (nominated Saturday @ The Valley)
Forever Love*
Danas Best*
Gregers (Accepted Saturday R1 @ The Valley)
Henwood
Honorius
Montgomery (nominated next Wednesday @ Sandown Lakeside)
Octavia
Pakal
Photon Willie
Puissance De Lune
Rain Affair (Accepted Saturday R6 @ Warwick Farm)
Recycle Prince
That's A Good Idea*

The stable has 15 horses in work, and will add to it until the stable is full of 20 striders to follow.

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Hey Chrome,

After watching some replays this morning, i was thinking that royal descent could be one to add to the stable striders. Ran first up in sydney yesterday, the winner hidden kisses was the fitter horse and held on only due to this fact, but i thought that royal descent was really striding out. Waller obviously has bigger plans for her and didnt have her wound up, but i did see something there that suggested she could be added.

Let me know what you think.

Cheers - tj

Gregers WON @ $1.27 (BFSP NET)
Rain Affair 3rd
I thought the way they rode Rain Affair he was doomed to fail, stuck out there in the lead and four wide like a granny's tooth, and then trying to pinch it all the way after a hard run. In my opinion, he's better off sitting off the speed and storming home, that's when his stride comes into play
So far the "stable" has had six starts for three winners, one second placing, one third placing and earned $222,250 in prizemoney.
Betting action is plus 3.19 units. 53.17% POT

Adding to the Stable of striders:
Bonne Nuit
Cauthen*
Elite Elle*
Flash Of Doubt
Forever Love
Danas Best
Gregers
Henwood
Honorius
Montgomery
Octavia
Pakal
Photon Willie
Puissance De Lune
Rain Affair
Rebel Dane*
Recycle Prince
That's A Good Idea

TJ - Royal Descent could certainly be one to follow, however didn't qualify to be added to the stable as there are a number of points the horse has to pass. Will keep an eye on the next few starts though, as I'm most likely wrong

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