Hi Michal if i can pose a question here.


Your strike rate for the top rated is 26.9%,
Long term and undisputed.

Let's go in a series of 10 bets.

Say your 1st 10 bets 10=7w
Then next 10 bets 10=6w.

Knowing you have overachieved here,
And it will eventually return to the norm,
Do you keep betting the same amount on the next,
10-20 bets or do you reduce the stakes.

The same can be said when you underachieve.

Say 10=1w
Then 10=0w.

Would you increase stakes in the next set,
Of 10-20 bets.

The reason i state 10 bets is because my bets,
Are adjusted for the example above.

Guess you can use any no's if required.

I never bet level stakes as this is not a staking plan.

The only time i use level stakes is to test whether a set of rules,
Is worth pursuing based on this criteria.

If it makes a profit or even a few % loss then a staking plan can be operated.

By the way aside from this i was an interested guest only,
When you were mercilessly attacked for no reason other,
Than you ran a ratings service on a now defunct forum.

Used to watch your answer(s) and you never once degraded yourself.

So i have been reading your posts on both sites for a while now,
And you have a much better form of clientel here.

I have one question for people who may wish to join.

What happens to the service if the head honcho(s)
Get sick, die, retire, sell up,etc for those who might see it
As a real long term thing.

Cheers.
Garyf.

Hi Garyf,

You raise several interesting topics.

Varying the stake according to previous immediate results be they based on 10 bet block or otherwise.

I can offer a few things here; Firstly we wouldn't recommend that anyone tries to bet every top pick even with our IR. But your question is probably more centered around the ups and downs of A method and if there is a way of profiting from it returning to norm. In theory it seams to be possible, however the issue is that you still don't know when the up or down trend will finish. It could be today or in a weeks time. The results don't come in an orderly fashion which probably makes this impractical. However that doesn't mean that you cant use this information for something. For instance do you notice that most punters start their punting with a system on the up and then wonder why did their systems just fall over like that. In reality they probably didn't! If you have a system with what you believe to be a known performance point then starting to bet after a really good run will mean that you are more likely in for a downward adjustment then further good times. So it would be best to wait and start when you are more likely to experience a normal performance. The paradox here is who in their right mind starts to bet on a method that is loosing?

The Axis program has a feature where your bets are placed into bet blocks of your chosen size and their performance measured and even the last 5 blocks are displayed just for such a situation. Dividing your bets in blocks serves further purpose of familiarising yourself with what to expect from a system; how many 1/10 blocks do you have? how many 7/10 do you have? what is the average? Knowing all these arm you with the knowledge that what is currently happening to your method (good or bad) is probably normal.

What happens to the service if the head honcho(s) Get sick, die, retire, sell up,etc for those who might see it as a real long term thing.

Great question garyf, it is the very reason that I started to learn to program, I wanted to make sure that the hard work that I put in will continue to reap benefits. I have learned a few things since then; Nothing stays the same! The hallmark of those that are profitable punters is that they can adapt. The skills you learn never really go to waste and can be applied to the next project.

Ratings2win is a combination of 2 racing enthusiasts, both of whom are committed to the business. Our information is duplicated on 2 different sites and we have offsite back up contingencies and security at each location. In terms of the ratings and data both of us can perform the function. Internet or power outages, computer crashes, holidays, being sick and other issues are not a show stopper. It may be inconvenient but it wont stop one of us doing the calculations. We are both in our 40s so hopefully we have some 20 years in front of us and we have plenty of new ideas and improvements to implement along the way.

Lastly, thank you for your kind words regarding the Punting Ace forum. This forum is far better moderated and while debate is encouraged personal attracts are not. What we went through, even here, is nothing new. Remember we have to compete in a market that is known for its shady characters and exaggerated and unproven claims (darkys post below yours is just one example). This makes people rather bitter and suspicious to new comers. People wonder what our gimmick is and try to expose it. All the hostility goes away when people eventually find out what we stand for and what we have to offer. Regardless if they use it or not.

I suppose our gimmick is consistent and transparent results, something that isn't known in the industry! What we say can be verified with a simple test by anyone using our software and even those that are in the 14 day money back guarantee period. I don't think that we can do any more then that.

Kind regards

__________________
Michal - Ratings2Win Pty Ltd
R2W Axis - Axis is Australia's leading horse racing software and database;
with sophisticated form analysis tools and accurate horse performance ratings for TAB meetings.
http://www.ratings2win.com.au/

Good answer(s).

All the best for R2W present and future.

Cheers.
Garyf.

Hi Michel/Paul,
In relation to Dead/Slow /Heavy TC do you bet to a Minimum Price.?

At $3 In the small study I,ve done it appears to lift the Profit quite well but your opinion is very welcome.

Cheers and thanks
darky

Ps.I consider Dead to be a combination Trackwise of all 3 TC on various parts of the Track.

Hi darkydog2002

Back from a short holiday and ready to attack the bookies again.

In respect of your question, "In relation to Dead/Slow /Heavy TC do you bet to a Minimum Price.?"
No. In terms of my own betting, I bet proportionally to collect 4% of my betting bank based on my own assessment of probability regardless of track condition. Even in terms of my pre-determined bets (those that clients of the SRA Selection Service receive which is all of them save for exotics), When an actual price is below my assessment I still generally bet in accordance with the recommendation. If for example I assess a horse $2.00 and the best available is $1.90 I still bet as this is within 2.63% in terms of probability of my assessment. If it was $1.80 then I would most likely pass. Another example if I assess a horse at $4.00 then I would bet at $3.60 but would pass at $3.20.

Yes Dead is a tricky track condition. I make my own assessment during the course of a day based on what the official track condition is reported at plus my own observations which are based on qualitative and quantitative data. Many times the official TC is incorrect based on our own assessment. That is supported by the fact that after the races are run, that many official track conditions are changed historically to reflect our previous assessment.

__________________
Regards


Paul Daily - Ratings2Win Pty Ltd (Director)
R2W Axis - Axis is Australia's leading horse racing software and database; with sophisticated form analysis tools and accurate performance ratings that include Hong Kong.
http://www.ratings2win.com.au/

Thank you.
The standard in the old days as to asessing Dead to Good was the time ran in the 1200M race.
In those days it was 1.10.4 - 1.10.8 for Good TC.
Not being a Times man I have no idea what it would be now.

As for wet tracks I use a different Bank.
For me its that extra piece of mind Psychologically speaking.

Cheers
darky

I cant get my head around this notion of only betting horses than shorten in the betting rather than get the best available price.

Whats your take on it.?

Cheers
darky

Hi darky

I'm not exactly sure what you are asking?

__________________
Regards


Paul Daily - Ratings2Win Pty Ltd (Director)
R2W Axis - Axis is Australia's leading horse racing software and database; with sophisticated form analysis tools and accurate performance ratings that include Hong Kong.
http://www.ratings2win.com.au/

Probably better addressed to other posters but basically the idea is to "Follow the horse that is the biggest FIRMER in the betting" .

What I,m basically asking is = Is there any statistical evidence for this being a good idea.?

Is there any particular Price range where this might actually work.?

I ask a Pro because this idea has been bandied about for more years than I care to remember.

Cheers
darky

Hi darky

Overall betting markets that are very close to or at post time (when the biggest firmer in the betting is known) are very efficient. That is the SP of a horse is the best indication of its chances providing it is adjusted for price bias.

So to answer your question, whilst backing these types of horses may provide an increase in strike rate, doing so after the best prices have been bet is a sure fire way of ensuring that you finish behind.

I'm sure that making the following statement will stimulate a lot of discussion. The only way to profit from betting on a consistent basis is to not only arm yourself with data that is not in the possession of the general betting public but also possess the computer/software power to do things with the data that the majority don't. We believe that in that context Ratings2Win is lengths ahead of the opposition. Whilst this is a sales pitch it is also factual.

You may or may not be aware that we provide a 14 day risk free guarantee on the entire Axis product range. That way potentials clients can avail themselves with the benefits that Axis provides and ascertain for themselves whether the results claims that we make in respect of our products and services are genuine, which I can assure you they are.

__________________
Regards


Paul Daily - Ratings2Win Pty Ltd (Director)
R2W Axis - Axis is Australia's leading horse racing software and database; with sophisticated form analysis tools and accurate performance ratings that include Hong Kong.
http://www.ratings2win.com.au/