Hi Novice,
Heres another angle one may like to check out.

Its called betting to price & is considered by many as a better way to place ones bets as opposed to level stakes betting.

The idea is to have a base takeout amount e.g. $10, one then divides the dividend into that amount.
e.g. $10/$3.20 = $3.00 bet
e.g. $10/2.10 = $5.00 bet

It is said that it keeps the bets in perspective based on the fact more shorter pricess horse win than longer priced horses.

An alternative to this is that one increases the base amount by 10% after each loss.
e.g. 10 11 12 13 14 15 ect
One repeats the base takeout amount if a winner is struck but still not in profit.

Maybe its an idea not to go past 15 so as to fit in with your G6 stratergy.

Cheers.

__________________
Cheers.

Sorry Crash

944 Total Bets

366 Win

Kevin


Novice Punter

Kevin, If you have won over that No. of bets, then over that number of bets you managed to have the odds [on average over the number of bets] in your favour through either luck or masterful selections of actual overlays. No other reason.


For anyone interested, they might like to have a read.

See: 'Progression Betting'
and....
'Mathematical Proof That Progressions Cannot Overcome Expectation' [f you have the head for the maths involved].

http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/progress/progress.htm

Hi Crash,

Thanks for your comment, but like you said you need the head for that kind of reading.

Had a quick look, and no disrespect to yourself, it’s the usual slating of any type of betting other than Level Staking, proven by mathematicians and fair play to them, but as we know betting is not a very high scientific act and punters are not mathematicians no disrespect intended to them/us.

So therefore their findings have no relevance to any punter who does not believe in flat betting, in my opinion.

I respect peoples rights to be different and to write about it even if it was a hundred years ago, but as I said before each to his own.

With regard to luck or masterful selections, the selections pick themselves, I don’t know what they will be until just before the off.

With Respect

Kevin

Novice Punter

Novice

Just done a quick Chi-test on the figures you supplied. If they are accurate I'd be dropping the "Novice" tag if I was you. On those figures there is virtually no chance that your success is due to luck. In my experience this is very, very unusual in gambling.

Keen to see some of your selections posted pre-race

Pixie.

Me too !
-------------------------

Kevin,

The laws maths work regardless whether we understand them. If they can be ignored [oh, and they often are], that won't change the outcomes. 2+2 = 4 regardless and staking systems don't work either. There are many possible staking paths [millions of variations] but if you have a 2% disadvantage, eventually you will make 2% loss regardless. Vi-a-vis applies of course too.

If someone could get around the laws of maths [put them aside or say 'I don't understand them so they don't apply to me'] and make progressive staking somehow turn a loss at flat stake betting into a profit, every Casino in the World would have went broke long ago!

Hi AngryPixie,

Thank you for them words of encouragement, too old to be anything other than a novice now but thanks for the thought.

Lots of hard work and patience makes your luck, im sure you will agree.

With regard to selections I am only certain there is one just before the off, the system and rules are based on off prices and other conditions.

Not much use for posting I know.

I have heard of Chi-test before somewhere but don’t know how it is used.

Kevin

Novice Punter

Hi Crash,

With respect you are still not allowing for the ingenuity of the punter.

Kevin

Novice Punter

Well Kevin, if you have a progressive staking system that can turn loss into profit, you are wasting your talents in Horse Racing. Hit the Casino's and clean up big time [the house take is less than Horse Racing on most games and there is an almost bottomless pit of money to be won]!

Google for "matharchie". 0dd5 are you'll find it.

Put the resulting probability into Excel like this

=1-CHIDIST(probability,1)

You should end with a figure between 0 and 100%. Generally anything over 95% is considered significant. That is only 5% of the result can be attributed to luck.

You can naturally do the whole thing in Excel but the page you should turn up offers a very neat explanation if your interested in learning without all the stats mumbo-jumbo.

I used 148.88 as your expected winners given your level stakes AvSP of 6.35. Your second SP figure of 2.72839 would probably have been more realistic. What you really need is the sum of all the chances over the series of bets. The figure I used above does give you a ludicrous advantage of 146%.

Pixie