jfc, interesting yet unsuprising results because its as i suspected - the sheep are alive & well!

& while they are the "rest" of us should be lining our pockets, no?

anyone able to analyse the results for runners say under 10/1 that have NOT been tipped by a given panel of tipsters?

I got the computer to work out what my second, third, fourth selection were doing and for 2003 - present NSW I get.
1st choice 27.86% winners
2nd Choice 18.81% winners
3rd choice 13.24% winners
4th choice 9.82% winners
Your table suggests about 72.5% from the four choices Duritz which is pretty close, I make the total 69.7%

KV

Good strike rate for your top selection there KV, well done.

G'day All,
As promised earlier I have located an article from a magazine of a couple of years ago which is relevant to this topic. Unfortunately, the file is too large to attach to this post. If anybody wants a copy they can e-mail me at emerson754 at hotmail dot com and I'll send it. Let me know if you have winzip when you do.
I also have to agree with jfc re value obtainable from newspaper tipsters. Too many people follow them.
I reckon we could do better by establishing our own panel of raters for the three or four best races per weekend and follow them. Are the newspaper tipsters any better than our own forumites as a team? The ratings competition suggests our team would more than hold its own.
All the best

I may be getting off the point here but this sums up my thoughts on value. If a horse at double figure odds gets up to beat our own selection, the first thing we do is look at the form of that horse and ask ourselves why did it win and why was it as such good odds. I will guarantee it was at good odds for any one or combination of the following:

1. lots of 7 8 9 or zeros in form
2. unfashionable jockey or trainer
3. WIDE BARRIER
4. SUPPOSEDLY unsuitable distance/going/track
5. not in most favoured column of tipsters panel

The more of these factors that apply to my top rated selection the happier I am . It means A BETTER PRICE . How many top rated selection criteria actually make a profiit as a single factor? such as the top jockey or trainer, horse with the best strike rate at the distance or going or track. Not many I bet and that is because they are overbet.

The method I now use is to just use the best rating of the last three runs and price the race accordingly. no bonuses or penaltys for top jockeys good barriers or distance specialists, just the best recent run. The strikerate of my top selection probably wont be as good as those who add other factors in but the prices I get will overcome that.

Top thread fellas.
Darky I couldn't agree more with your obsevations re: the pub people.
As a for instance I loaned a book by "Hats Aitkins" ( A pretty light read I thought) and a copy of a recent PPM to a work mate of mine to read.
He gave them back to me the very next day and said they were a bit too deep for him, (but he noted some of the mentioned horses in PPM for future bets).
Now this is coming from a man who marches off to the TAB every Saturday with a couple of hundred $$$'s in his kick and by God he hasn't had a good time until it's all gone.
Just more grist for the mill I suppose.
Keep up the good work all, and a special thankyou to you Bhagwan for all your input.

__________________
Jose'.

Hmmm, we might have to try that one day.

Okay, I've been going through the last few months form guides looking for an angle on the tipster polls. I decided to look at ALL of the top 3 in the most favoured column of the Friday Courier Mail and then apply some strict rules that I like to use in my other systems. It did very well in the test period but I think I'm going to have to look at it some more before I could be confident that I have something to go on. I'll see if it comes up with any selections this week.

[QUOTE=DR RON]
1. lots of 7 8 9 or zeros in form
2. unfashionable jockey or trainer
3. WIDE BARRIER
4. SUPPOSEDLY unsuitable distance/going/track
5. not in most favoured column of tipsters panel

My tongue-in-cheek response to these factors is:
1. The trainer's a ********** - he/she's been running it cold
2. Both the trainer and jockey are ************
3. All the jockeys inside the winner were incompetent
4. The trainer doesn't have a clue what his horse really wants
5. The tipster's seeing-eye dog pee'd on the selections before publication