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#21
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Did better than 28c on the 6th at Tatura --- but missed a couple (too high a price when I tried to lay my bet e.g. Danisker); and was in too much of a hurry when trying to lay Mindmaster --- and backed it instead!! Still way in front. Congrats on your efforts.
Of course, we have to bear in mind what Maria says over and over again on her thread --- there will be bad days. Went through nearly half of her thread last night (no wonder I was muddled backing Mindmaster) --- was almost gaga at the end; but it was significant that her bank was only up 40% after 103 days --- 3 months! Yet it went on to be up 3000%, or whatever, in a year! |
#22
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Merriguy
I'm hoping to average only 1% per day, which at the end of the year gives a healthy profit. Way ahead of that so far! |
#23
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Mark,
On the B/F Forum a few days ago one guy said that he lays every favourite every night (English, I guess), to lose 100 pounds, on the US races. He lays them all at whatever price to lose 100. Doing this he made 4% first year, 8% last year. This year he is down 0.5% --- but he is not worried as there is still a long way to go. Incidentally, that -0.5% is 2000 pounds down!!! His worst night, he claims, was when 26/40 won! "Not nice but that's the game" was his comment. To balance that he claims to be going to N.Y. this Friday --- with his 'missis' --- 'our fourth trip this year'! Makes your aim of 1% not too bad if you can believe what he has said. |
#24
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Day 3
Bank $2153.77 Bets $21.53, $12.92 & $8.61 Launceston R1 7 GEORGIA STAR R2 2 MISTY CROWN R3 3 FULL VELOCITY R4 6 TIBOOBURRA TRAVIS R5 1 AFFAIR DE JOUR R8 4 APRILIA R9 1 ONE WAY TRAFFIC R10 6 DEBACLE Eagle Farm R1 5 VAL DE LA DIVA R2 8 FLYING SILVER R3 9 MR MOJITO R4 9 DUSTY TAAN R5 10 SHEWHOMUSTBEOBEYED R6 7 POWER CITY R7 3 NATIONAL FOREST Randwick R1 7 REIBY REFRAIN R2 4 NAVAHO TRAIL R3 3 ROLL OVER ROVER R4 8 NOW NOW R5 3 SWEED R6 7 COLOURFUL MOMENTS Werribee R2 2 PERFECT RULE R3 7 LADY MAMBO ** R5 10 PASS THE BUBBLY R6 3 TILL TIME Gawler R1 2 L'ARTISTE R2 7 PRINCE DANZATORE R3 4 STAND YOUR GROUND R4 2 POSITIVE ACTION R5 5 DON'T TELL KEL R6 3 SYMMETRICAL STAR R7 6 SHAMANIC Queanbeyan R1 2 DANCING DRAMA R2 3 TREPEZANOV R3 5 JUSTA PRETENDER R4 1 BREZINA R5 2 THE BOXER R6 7 PINEY CREEK R7 1 BOSSY MATILDA ** Only lay if in the first 2 in the market. Seems silly to lay my 3rd pick in a 5 horse race if it's 3rd fav or worse. |
#25
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Quote:
hear what your saying mark, but after all isint the aim to lay your selection within your price range parameters if possible? so if one has a guide, be it rough or not, as to the nags likely price range, im not too sure what the problem with a nag blowing or firming is, your only getting caught if it wins, which is no different from any of the other bets your making. |
#26
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Stugots I'm with Mark. I've had my pants pulled down too many times by laying too early, only to watch the "private information" money come in at the last minute. I lay to prices but I know others have more info than me. My prices are a rough guide and if my selection shortens too much from my assessed price I walk away. Hope to work on automating this with the Betfair API. Pixie |
#27
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Win or lose stugots, if a horse is 6 into 5/2, what price would you like to lay it at? The same goes for a horse that's 6 out to 12. Laying at the right price gives you options, and it's a risk reward thing. Plus I just hate betting blind. I never bet on the tote for the same reason.
Speaking of the tote, I didn't lay the selection in the first at Launceston. 12 on Betfair but 3.30 fav on Unitab. The poor saps that backed it wouldn't have a clue. |
#28
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Merriguy Can you put this down to anything? Did her strike rate improve? Was she getting better prices? Pix |
#29
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fair enough mark & angryp, & i tend to agree with u both.
i often lay in early at what i percieve to be an unders price but then bet back out to reduce potential losses if i start to get that 'bad feeling' abt my ever shortening nag. not a regular occurance but one of the reasons bf is somewhat of a revelation, to me at least, the ability to get out of unexpected trouble. Last edited by stugots : 28th February 2007 at 02:26 PM. |
#30
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Quote:
Very similar to what I'm doing Merriguy, but the key is the price he gets on those favourites, and I have a price cut off, because the higher the price gets, the less likely I can judge it's true price and the more exposure. I think I bet the same same night that 26/40 happened!
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