Chrome,

A positive expectation outcome is of course possible in a negative expectation game. However, that's not the same as saying there is profit $$$ to be made in concentrating on positives within a personal losing outcome. Which is what it looked like you were saying.

By staking less on the negatives and more on the positives (in effect only really backing the positives), then you have turned a negative into a positive.

It's all semantics really, you can turn a negative into a positive, but only when the staking is such that the greater bet is on the positive outcome (read odds in your favour).

__________________
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personally, if the present trend continues; I can see no further room for change!!

Your right Party. The spade in this thread has now [miraculously] become a shovel !!!

PS: Thank God the Sydney Harbour bridge wasn't built with the maths some punters like to use :-))

No they built the Westgate.

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Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

Fair chance in 16yrs I might have had a fair few bets, but good point it pays to cover all angles.

Good Punting and Goodnight

For those not interested in progrssional staking , read no further.

If any one wishes to have a serious go at progrssional staking its a good idea to have an XL sheet set up with 70 columns , so that tinkering with worst possible out comes cam be experimented with.
See if one can make it recover after 50 losses in a row, using the selection plan one wishes to use.

The Ladder type progressions are the safest because one is not reducing the divisors ,this is when bets can get aggressive if its not kept in check.

For those interested in the Retirement plan .
To try & keep it simple, it goes something like this.

Start with a divisor of either 5/1 or 6/1 , we never drop below this at any stage.
We will start with a 5/1 divisor.
$100 Target / 5 = 20 = 1% of bank,
(It is optional if one wishes to make this less, in this case target could be set at $50 = 0.5% using same bank size.)
Bank required $2000

The first bet has to be between 1% or 0.5% of bank.

First bet is $20 if it loses we add this to out $100 target ect.
All other on going bets will have one pt added to the divisor until a winner is struck.
The odds of the winner are now deducted from the previouse divisor after the new target amount has been calculated after that win.

Example of Divisors used.
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12w@4/1 8 9 10w@2/1 8 9w3/1 6 7w@2/1 5w 5w ect.
Do this until in any profit is made, then start again.

Remember no one ever went broke taking a profit.

It is strongly recommended to start afresh as soon as any profit is made, otherwise one needs to plogh more resources into the betting sequence to win say the last $50 of the $100 target figure.
It takes a lot less resources to win the first $2-50 than it does to win the last $50 of the $100 target.
So please keep that in mind.

The Retirement plan can be made more aggressive by reducing the divisor by its Decimal price rather than its Fractional odds.
e.g. Winner at $5.00 = 4/1 Reducing divisor by 5pts instead of 4pts.
Using the Decimal figure is the one I would use.

This helps the plan recover a bit quicker , it also increases the size of the bets.
Run it over a worst case scenerio , say 70 bets with 40-50 outs in a row & see what it looks like. Using an XL sheet to reflect the dividors used.

If the bets look too high by bet 70 so as to recover , it will need further tweeking.

The original Retirement plan needs the selections to nearly break even to make it work because it uses fractional odds to reduce the divisor .

Using decimal odds to reduce the divisor the selection plan can show a loss of approx minus 10-15% at level stakes to still show a profit.

Remember to try & start afresh as soon as any profit is made , one will find its POT greater if one does it this way .
Also it helps protect the bank more, if a bad run of outs should crop up.

Never drop divisor below 5/1 , otherwise one will pay the penalty of some aggressive bets in proportion to ones size.

If one starts feeling nervious about the size of the bets , simply add 2 pts to the divisor at any time, this also means that it is going to take longer to recover.
If one does their 70 bet spread sheet , one should not be feeling this way because they should of prepared themselves for what they are in for.


Cheers.

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Cheers.

Hi Bhagwag
This is what I tried on Sunday backing every Fav. (51 bets)
$10 bet Div. 6 Target $60
When in profit start again.
When $60 down start again.
Ended the day $68 up, lost bank 2 times.
Use retirement plan would have won $120.

Wesmip1 it dose work thanks

Hi, Crackone. Impressive.

Backing every fave for the same amount would have resulted in a profit or loss?

47 bets on the races (had a couple on the trotts)
$127.46 return (betfair) no commission taken out
14 winners 29.78 strike rate
ave. price $3.60
Longest run of outs 8 and a 7.

edit. Lost back 3 times not 2 times as stated earlier.