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Old 17th March 2015, 12:33 PM
evajb001 evajb001 is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 463
Default Best way to bet overlays?

Hi all,

I've been up to my old tricks again looking for ways to improve my results or find more profitable angles. Something I've found is that with my ratings if the BFSP price is within a certain overlay range to my assessed price then it improves the results dramatically. i.e. the following is what I'm talking about:

Betting all selections (TOP 3)
TOP - +7.07 units, 24.76% SR, 3.43% POT, 0.51 Profit/Max Div
2ND - +82.31 units, 19.42% SR, 39.96% POT, 1.48 Profit/Max Div
3RD - +49.21 units, 17.48% SR, 23.89% POT, 3.74 Profit/Max Div

Now if I had only bet those selections if BFSP was less than 2.5x my assessed price:
TOP - +43.14 units, 34.75% SR, 30.60% POT, 5.48 Profit/Max Div
2ND - +48.49 units, 23.72% SR, 31.08% POT, 4.54 Profit/Max Div
3RD - +41.08 units, 18.97% SR, 23.61% POT, 3.50 Profit/Max Div

As you can see it improves the results dramatically both in terms of strike rate and consistency (i.e. profit comes from more resulting bets instead of a single large dividend).

Some of you may remember I looked at this angle a long time ago with my first basic ratings approach and had some success, particularly after reading the Alan Woods interview/article (http://tonywilson.com.au/writing/al...to-riches-story)

What I need to know is from those who use bots (personally created or purchased) is the easiest possible way for me to implement this approach? The main issue being:

Each race is priced differently and therefore the bet/bot needs to take into account my accesssed price when determining if the bet should be placed or not. Most bets allow you to set a basic odds limit like do not bet above $5, but I'm yet to see one that allows you to set something like do not bet above $7.81 for this horse, $9.46 for this horse etc etc.

Is a customized bot/excel setup my only hope? or is there an option I haven't found yet?

I'm pretty keen to get this underway as it seems when my assessed prices are around the mark it proves to be highly profitable (so far - small sample size).

Any help/suggestions appreciated.
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