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After messing around with value for years I continue to find myself confronted with the above scenario. My top/or second rated horse is frequently the favourite. Now according to the value pundits unless I get the "value" odds I will go broke. Finding 4/1 favourites or rating no-hopers on top of the pile is almost impossible,so I ask the "value" men,,,What is the answer to this conundrum??? Do I forlornly sit in front of my monitor and watch my top pick bolt in at 3/1 or do I plonk my hard earned on at below value odds ??? (and go broke) ?? With regard to ratings I have long felt that if your top rated horse is not the favourite you are doing something wrong.However I do think that a horses average rating over a period of some eighteen months or so is about the best indication of "class" in any given race. I'm not knocking the "value" men.Just curious how they overcome the fact that horses rated to win simply dont start at odds calculated on an 80% market. |
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