27th August 2005, 11:50 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,367
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by jose
If the old system/selection method of backing a last start winner if it starts again inside 7 days is profitable, the opposite may well be true too.
ie: Lay a last start winner if it has not started within, say, 28 days.
The reasoning being that if a horse is going well then the connections would start it sooner than 28 days from a win.
If it has not started for >=28 days it may have had a setback of some sort which would also make it a risk.
Can one of the database gurus run it through for me please.
Also maybe 14 days, 21 days etc.
A thousand thankyou's in advance, jose.
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Hi Jose,
Last Start winner within 7 days = 18.39% Strike Rate, 3.69% Loss on Turnover.
Last Start winner within 7 days 8 to 14 days = 14.85% Strike Rate, 17.06% Loss on Turnover
Last Start winner within 7 days 15 to 21 days = 13.76% Strike Rate, 16.92% Loss on Turnover
Last Start winner within 7 days 22 to 28 days = 12.52% Strike Rate, 19.33% Loss on Turnover
While you are on the right track, it is the price at which you are able to lay the selections which will determine your success. You'll find that you need at least a 20% loss to start winning, because of the odds people will accept. |