Stop frightening us Mr.Guitar Jimmy , I know we can all win , I just know it.

Jokes aside , punting to lay horses can be a very risky business .
Because one is dealing with prices similar to place betting & we all know what that feels like , its like trying to paint ice hoping we dont become unstuck.
In lay betting for those who dont already know , the biggest profit is finding short priced horses that we fell will fall over, the shorter the Favs price for the win the greater the price if it falls over .
The higher the price ,the lower the lay price.
If any of them get up to win instead of loose, say 1 in 6 lays you more than likely will loose.
It is very difficult to find false Favs , possible the best one can do is approx 20% of those we deam will fall over will indeed win, which guarantees you will loose if laying them on the prices on offer.

If one want to prove this to themselves.

Pick one paper Fav from each meeting , say this Sat that we feel should fall into a glorious heap. There well be approx 10 meetings to target , thats 10 favs for one to select.
Now I can almost guarantee 2 of those 10 will win , which means you would have lost money if one were to bet on all 10 to fall over.

I know it sounds a bit strange , but no matter how hard you try to find the false fav , 20% will still win . Weird is`nt it.
One stat I uncovered was that in maiden races 1110M & less .
Favs starting from barrier 1 had only a 15% chance of winning based on 5 years of results.


I cant help feeling that place betting would be a more comfortable option to the average punter because the initial outlays are far less & the divs one is dealing with are similar.

As for last start winners in the last 7 days.
The stats show that it is the distance of exactly 1200m & must be $4.00+ in the pre-post market that produces the strongest results & with a few filters, can show a profit , one of my systems I use, is based around this & has shown profits over the last 5 years.
Maybe the reason for this is that it might attract the specialists in this distance range.

If you want a simple system based around Favs , here it is, free...

Pick one meeting & one meeting only for each day of the week.
1)Target the TAB fav to win $5 with a $300 bank & recovering all losses until a winner is struck, using the TAB prices at jump time .
Make your min divisor 2.50 even if the price on offer is less than this.
Accept any small losses that may come from doing this .
2)Stop at the first winner for the day.
3)If all 8 races loose, start afresh the next day.
Do not carry any loses over to the next day.

You will see that there will hardly be a day when one wont get up for you.
Sometimes one will find that there are dual favs, say $0.10 apart , back the one with the best Wt.Rating as per TABQ (e.g.100Ptrs) or any other
Wt. rating source.

This $5 represents 1.66% to starting bank & over say 7 days , represents 11.62% for the week, on you starting bank of say $300 = $35 profit

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Cheers.