The Great Australian Hope! Currently the 4th favourite at $12. Is patriotism shortening his odds? Or is he as genuine a chance as the price implies?

Vow And Declare first announced himself in the Queenland Derby, finishing within a length of Mr Quickie at odds: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ckl403bn-I.

His rating rocketed from 73 to 85 - and then sped further to 99 following his performance as favourite in taking out the Tattersall's Cup, beating second placegetter Big Duke by 3 lengths as he sped down the straight: http://mediaatc.skyracing.com.au/Ra...622EAFR06_V.mp4

That finished his Winter campaign and he resumed 3 months later in the Turnbull Stakes. He finished a close 4th (1.7L): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8zAgHvA4stE with Kings Will Dream taking the victory and Finche just 0.1 lengths behind. Though only over 2000m, Vow And Declare will get back 1.5kg over Finche - who otherwise held him comfortably in the straight.

Vow And Declare's final race ahead of the big dance was the Caulfield Cup, where he ran on from worse than midfield to take out second position, 1 length behind Mer De Glace and just ahead of Mirage Dancer: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PkC7OfGgUbc. Swooping late he ran the fastest final 200m of the race, which surely must augur well for the 3200m distance.

Come Cup-eve his rating is 102. ....but he must carry 2.5kg greater than his rating would suggest (when compared to Cross Counter). On the positive side: he gets 1kg back vs Mer De Glace.

Per his Dosage Profile of (6-8-6-0-0), DI of 5.67 and CD of 1, he's not suited to long journeys at all. His Conduit Mare Profile again indicates that he's suited to far shorter: (5-8-2-9-5) with Speed 13, Stamina 14, Index 0.95 and Triads (15-19-16). No other horse has won a Melbourne Cup with an Index so high this century (the closest is Prince of Penzance with 0.92). Criterion in "crazy 2015" is the only horse to place this century with a Speed figure greater than Stamina. Only two others have placed with a 1 point discrepancy between the two: Jardines Lookout and Maybe Better were both 4+ length 3rds.

Of course all this pedigree stuff should be discounted when presented with evidence to the contrary and there's every indication thus far that Vow And Declare will make the distance comfortably. ...but how good is Big Duke now? That is: the horse he beat into 2nd place over 3000m. Big Duke has required a vet certificate to race again in each of his last two runs. That can't lend much confidence....

As much as I'd like Vow And Declare to be a real prospect, I think it more likely that he'll be scraping into the top 10.