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In part 1 we last finished with a profitable system, and a statement that despite it being a real system (not for sale), now having made profit going forward for well over a year and half most people would loose long-term using it or any other profitable system for that matter.

Let’s explain and explore the reasons why this would be. Firstly some terms everyone punting should be familiar with:

Max Run of outs is the greatest number of loosing selections in a row that has occurred in the sample.
Max Bank Draw this is a number that represents the longest run of bets between 2 bank highs. This can occur at any stage of the betting sequence.
Bank Risk; usually represented by a percentage, it is the portion of your bank that you will temporarily hand over to the bookie before getting it back along with your profits. The Max Bank risk is the absolute worst case scenario recorded and Average Bank Risk is the run of the mill temporary loss you make before recovering. While the aforementioned Max Bank Draw represents a number of bets the Bank Risk represents the actual dollars.

Most people can logically accept and comprehend the risk factors outlined above; it is another thing entirely to go through them. So let’s look at some of the realities of what you have to go through to get your $80,000 profit while you are turning over near enough to $900,000.

Max run of outs – 95. Looking at the bets per day, 95 bets is around 3 weeks’ worth of daily betting where all you have every day is another ‘disaster’. Yet this figure does not take into account what happens once a winner is struck; how many more loosing bets before the next winner? It could be 94, just one less than the max, making this 1 winner from 189 bets. We regularly see people twitching after a week and abandoning and or drastically changing methods after a few weeks of no winners. So what is the likelihood of enduring the above mentioned run?
Max Bank Draw down– 2288 this represents a period of about a year and quarter where your betting has not seen a new bank high. You may well be in profit based on your initial bank size, but this frustrating period means an eternity where you just can’t seem to catch a break. How many times in that period are you going to contemplate changing the system or giving up in frustration or fear that this really is the beginning of the end, so it’s best to get out while you are still marginally in front. The real eye opener is that this draw down equals to $29,000. So obviously somewhere in the middle of your sequence, when you had a nice profit of nearly 2x your original bank, you lost most of that profit.
Bank Risk – 94% this means that somewhere you will nearly wipe out your entire bank before achieving recovery. Simply said, I don’t know anyone that would have broken through that and continued.

While the above seems like a lot of bad news, and the system will have been discarded as being broken, a scame and whatever else or simply changed several times, the truth remains; providing that you have what it takes, this is a real and possible outcome. The issue is that realistically most people do not have what it takes to do this at least to the level required to capitalise on the above (risky) opportunity.

The failure to control your emotions and bank roll management is why 99% of people fail on punting. It is a harsh truth to accept!

However there is some good news! We don’t all have nerves and determination of steel, yet we all still want to have a profitable punting experience. We can control our losses and there by eliminate our failures by managing our outlay and thereby our bank.

Betting: $10,000 Bank, 0.25% per bet, constant bet size. OUTCOME: $21,200 profit !

While the above is not a great outcome compared to the first scenario, (remember the $80,000 profit) the risk is far more realistic due to the 0.25% per bet. While the Max Draw down, run of outs and so on are still the same, the risk to your bank is now only 34%. That is much more manageable for most people and above all suitable for a method such as this..

If you want to make more money, then get a bigger bank instead of increasing your risk. Using a $50,000 bank betting the same 0.25% with the same risks would result in a profit of around $102,000.

Long-shot systems and for that matter, punting in general is a grind that most people are never really prepared for even if their bank management is sound. The pressure of undesirable strike rate, runs of outs and draw on the bank will unhinge even the most optimistic and determined punters. Throw into the mix the occasional missed winner, a couple of bad photo finishes and other mishaps and you have the reason why 99% of punters fail; they fall apart from over extending their betting beyond their risk threshold this applies to both financial and mental/emotional arenas.

The best advice that we can provide, is to work with a method that you can sustain emotionally and financially. Be realistic about the time spent in respect to managing the work required to generate and bet your methods selections and above all else, being realistic with your expectations. If you are lucky enough to get your hands on reading material from those that succeed long term and are a known and a respected entity, you will find that the message is nearly always the same; here are some of the key points that most pros live by:

Long term approach to betting!
Good tools and automation in today’s competitive market!
Logical and tested (long-term and large sample) method!
Bank roll management in line with your true risk threshold and methods performance!
Consistent application of the method and betting execution!
Realistic expectations!

There is no escaping mathematics and reality in betting, there are no dispensations for anyone and despite of the information out there many choose to ignore it, generally until they are confronted by the said reality; sadly and often this is not recognised for what it is; a failure of the punter to adhere to the realities of betting!

We hope you'l find all of the above useful in your future endeavors.

All the best!