Hermes...

You are quite right when you are holding a losing ticket, 4th is 4th and 2nd is 2nd.

But I think what chief was trying to get you to see...is that numbers on paper are not the be all and end all. This is why most computer software to predict winners doesn't work. There are variables in horse racing.

For instance, if a horse runs second 8 lengths from the winner....isn't a horse that runs 10th placing only 4 lengths from the winner a better horse / run?
On paper it can be deceiving, and so can some formguides / stats.

Looking at statistics ALONE doesn't work.

Also a horse may have been blocked for a run, got bumped in the running by another horse, cast a plate and slipped on the home turn and flashed home for second placing. That is a lot better run than a soft run second from another horse.

When assessing form and stats for a horse always take into account the overall picture such as win / place percentages, prizemoney, form over the distance and in the conditions. Always forgive a horse a few bad runs as long as it doesn't become a pattern in it's form. Look at trials formguides, and stewards reports, also trackwork times if your horse runs a well below average run.

[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-06-23 21:08 ]