Hi pgra,

Welcome to the forum. The 13% POT that you have achieved is within the normal range of variance (2 lines of deviation applied) which is -8.1% LOT to 28.1% POT for this number of bets, assuming a strike rate of 50% and a 10% profit edge.

The problems associated with only having 147 bets over a 2 year period is that you could be losing 8.1% on turnover ($1,916 on a $10,000 starting bank). The real question is whether you or anyone could continue to bet after showing a loss at the end of 2 years. These calculations of course assume that you have a 10% edge in the first place which you could not possibly know with such as small sample.

In terms of whether a home track advantage exists within the metropolitan area, the numbers do not support that it does.

__________________
Regards


Paul Daily - Ratings2Win Pty Ltd (Director)
R2W Axis - Axis is Australia's leading horse racing software and database; with sophisticated form analysis tools and accurate performance ratings that include Hong Kong.
http://www.ratings2win.com.au/