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Originally Posted by TheSchmile
Hi PaulD01,
Congratulations on your ratings database, it looks very promising and you've obviously put a lot of work into it.
A question or two:
A 52% SR sounds great but not if you're losing 10% POT. Do the R2W indicators make a profit at level stakes? Saturdays only??
From my experience it's nigh impossible to profit backing every race using ratings.
Do the R2W indicators show a profit on black type races excluding 2, 3yo races perhaps?
Please note I'm not having a go at your ratings Paul, or your integrity, as you seem to be a straight shooter, I'm merely looking for more info.
Have a fine day.
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Hi The Schmile,
Thanks for your post. I will deal with your questions one at a time.
Do the R2W indicators make a profit at level stakes?
No rating as you are already aware can deliver a level stakes or proportional profit betting across all races. In terms of your question though, the results at level stakes for the indicators are as follows (all races 56,928, horses 186,365 avg. of 3.27 per race):
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TEST RESULTS for System - INDICATORS
Date Range - 2010 03 05 R to 2013 10 20 R Period of Days - 1326
Price Option - Best of SP and NSW
WIN STATISTICS Value Bets Wins SR Collect Avg POT Profit Outs
Races 56928 29611 52.0% $171,992.72 $5.80 -7.71% -$14,372.28 16
Horses 186365 29612 15.9% $171,992.72 $5.80 -7.71% -$14,372.28 NA
Betting proportionally the POT is -6.8%.
Saturdays only?
Similar results POT -8.25%, proportionally it's -6.75%
Do the R2W indicators show a profit on black type races excluding 2, 3yo races perhaps?
No.
Some of the many interesting results though when viewing the analysis.
1. When our expected leader (determined by our PIR ranking) is also an indicator the LOT is reduced to 1.26% across 23,690 bets;
2. When an indicator and also Betfair favourite the LOT is reduced to 2.72% across 36,013 bets;
3. Indicators that are backmarkers lose nearly 9.5 times that of our expected leaders. Once again the important point here is that the backmarkers are R2W labelled backmarkers;
This is all quite amazing when you consider the dividend option used namely SP/NSW tote.
The main point of difference here is that the presence of a horse that is an indicator greatly enhances its return profile. This is especially so when betting exotics. What you will find is that the indicators deliver more long priced winners consistently than any other rating/ranking that is commercially available. Whether the selection is odds on or 500/1 the indicators deliver a balanced distribution of selections across all price ranges.
A great way of determining the value of an additional source of data is to examine its impact when measured against key factors such as metropolitan favourites. This is relevant because as a group, metro favourites have the best return profile. For e.g. backing all metropolitan favourites returns a LOT of 4%. When overlaying our indicators this is reduced to 2.5% (a massive 37.5% improvement). In addition the strike rate moves upwards by approximately 4-5% (an 18% improvement).
Of course there are a myriad of filters that can be applied that dramatically improve the base results without the risk of back fitting the analysis. For e.g. one of the 115+ analysis factors that contains a group of more than 17,000 bets actually makes a profit and another with around 2,000 selections makes a profit of 20% even at SP/NSW.