Hi All,
We are about to release an upgrade to Axis that has in it amongst other things the ability to use Betfair and Internet Fixed Price in betting simulations going back our entire length of the database. So now we have SP, Internet Starting Price, NSW, VIC, QLD totes, Best Tote, SP/NSW, BestTote/SP, Internet Fixed Price and Betfair from which we can construct a betting scenario. We have LAY and BACK methods with flat or proportional bet size based on constant, up/down or up only bank size. This covers all professional and common staking scenarios.
Why do I cover this? The reason is that
the punter must have the ability to know where the best price is. It may not be obvious to everyone, but your punting method can be greatly improved by 2 things; knowing where your best price is likely to be and knowing what the risks to your bank are. Sure it's easy to drop a phrase like "just get the best price".
Knowing WHERE, that is the issue, because the best price can change with each method that you use and it also changes the longer you use the method. The advice is that there should always be a realistic expectation about your ability to sustain you betting activity.
Using 'Best of Best' as your div for instance is deceptive. You'll hit reality; after a few successful bets you'll get the Dear Punter letter. If you are a winning punter with any real aspirations you must have profitable systems that uses the lower and more basic betting products because that is where you will end up. In this situation
it is critical to know what betting options produce what outcomes and you need this information upfront. You may not believe or accept the above admonition however, after you go through the entire family opening accounts in different names and getting mates to bet for you ect. ect.; you will end up in the Pro territory. Here, 'Best of Best' is who YOU are, not a betting product that you can obtain.
You don't have to use Axis which makes this very easy, do your own research. I'll give you some quick examples as to how this "WHERE" changes based on some real live tests.
The Test: Our Favourite System selections for 2013 (these were all live bets available on our site and later here on this forum) lets go with a $1,000 bank and simple 1% ($10) starting bet on bank high. The results are; Bets 574 wins 276, Strike rate 48.1% (these don't change)
Code:
NSW Tote : 3.26% POT Profit $216
QLD Tote : 2.45% POT Profit $166
VIC Tote : 2.12% POT Profit $139
Middle Tote : 2.59% POT Profit $170
Best Tote : 7.17% POT Profit $583
SP : 4.5% POT Profit $307
Sp/NSW : 8.7% POT Profit $672
Betfair : 8.15% POT Profit $625 (commission calculated)
ISP : 6.33% POT Profit $470
IFP : 12.02% POT Profit $1,073
BOB : 14.86% POT Profit $1,403
So the above covers some of the basic and more advanced betting products. Here are some of the issues that have risen from this simple test.
- QLD tote is not the best priced tote in this situation, even though bookies avoid it in their betting products.
- Middle tote is just a waste of time with no real benefit, this would also relate to anyone spreading their bet across the 3 totes in hope of equalizing the differences.
- Betfair still has an advantage here and on the favourite it is realistic that you'll get matched.
- SP is the worse of the fixed prices, you would be better off taking the median internet fixed price from corporate bookies as shown by our ISP
The best realistic price for this system is our Internet Fixed Price (IFP) to replicate this open several online accounts and then back the horse at the best fixed price you can get just before the jump. It works for this system, and the advantage is enormous, however, from experience I can assure you that with other systems, IFP is one of the worse options you can take.
Do you know the best betting option for your system/method?