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Originally Posted by darkydog2002
Here is a couple of Questions that have intriqued me since the days of Barry Blakemore.
1/Do Fillies/ Mares have a advantage over Colts /Geldings.
2/ Is there a cutoff point between days since last run.
3 / Do favs have a advantage over non Favs .
4/ Do 2 +3 YO have any advantage over older horses.
The questions are specific to 1st Up .
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Hi darkydog2002
Backing all first up runners using a sample of data covering in excess of 90,000 horses led to a strike rate of 9% and a POT of ~ -20% (level stakes) and ~ -12.4% (proportional).
What is more important though is whether the horse firmed during betting. Horses that firm in betting when first up have a strike rate of around 16% with a ~ -4.5% POT versus those that don't of around 6.5% with a ~ -13.5% POT.
Some key points to take from this:
- the market is the most accurate barometer for horses resuming;
- horses that don't firm in betting and are resuming have a loss profile that is almost impossible to overcome in the long term.
1. No. Colts, Geldings and Horses have an advantage over fillies and mares in terms of strike rate in mixed sex races.
2. I suggest anything over 300 days.
3. Absolutely. Favourites won 36% of races whereas 2nd favourites won 18.7%. The scale of market rank diminishes evenly as you would expect however
the key point is that favourites resuming outperform favourites within a preparation.
4. Yes. 2 + 3YO have an advantage against older horses in terms of strike rate in mixed age races.