25th May 2012, 03:39 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 1,070
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by woof43
Your rated 20% chance indeed needs to win 20% of the time, this in itself is very hard to measure, as it is very rare that you will get a large enough sample of exactly 20% rated chances to test a small deviation makes a large difference.
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Woof you could group them +/- 2.5%. It would be close enough to be indicative. Some of the long time ratings bod's would have plenty of past results at their disposal.
I guess I'm not suprised that this thread has had little interest. As moeee suggests it's probably a frightening prospect for many. Variance is nice when it's going your way 
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