22nd February 2011, 11:30 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 1,091
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Well, I’m getting there. A lot of info on this site and one thing that has been mentioned that I actually needed some help on, was to get away from the purely mechanical system. We’ve all got good systems that have just failed or for some reason, ‘a cosmic hand working against us”, that when we put our hard earned on the systems bombs …… or maybe it wasn’t so good to start with eh ?!?
One thing that’s been niggling away at me for yonks is that we “have to find the class horse” in the race then assess its fitness and another ten things ….. its then regarded as a system or it's an intelligent person evaluating the form. Either way, most punters will be on it, the bookies will take their percentage, the TAB will take its percentage …… SO WHY BOTHER !???
We know that a very small percentage of punters win (2% ?), so why would we hang on to the coat tails of the majority ? Eh, eh, eh, eh ????
It’s been staring me in the face for years ….. My premise is that there are too many variables in this caper, not the least of which includes bad luck, which makes it difficult to get into the right headspace to develop a system with a touch of logic thrown in (that makes you stand away from the other 98% a little). Adding extra filters, which I have done gets you closer and closer to BACKFITTING ….. the more you respond to the past, the closer you get to backfitting. Let’s look at last start winner within 7 days for example. Heck I don’t even know if it still wins, but it will win over certain periods, that’s for sure ! You can add a couple of logical filters to it and over the next 6 months you find it might break even. You then add another filter to take out a couple of the losers ….. you’re now backfitting ! ya cant win !!! You give it away …… Someone wins with this system don’t they ? ….. The ones who do are those that apply a little logic to decide whether to bet or not, anything other than a mechanical approach. Anything that cannot be measured will do. Like what ? Maybe you keep a look out for those horses in your system who have peaked, or who have come from a seemingly hopeless position on the turn (very often not repeated !)
You need one element in your system that uses your judgement only. eg: One of your filters may be that a horse had to run placed in its last three runs. What if it was palced in two of its runs, and the other run it was hit by a seagull, lost 5 lengths, and ran 6th. It might be something simple like this that can turn a “nearly system” into a winning system.
It’s right up my alley with my 100 reasons for losing psyche …………
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