Merriguy, I had a look at last Saturday's results because there were Group down to the low class races which were held at country tracks.

For the $6.00 to $9.90 price band using BAT, the results are:

103 smiles = 97.85 units profit.
17 accidents for a loss of 106.32 units.
A loss of 8.47 units.

I also looked at a few factors, such as type of race, distance, amount of selections per race, amount of runners per race, price of the fave, but I could not find any consistency - the accidents seemed random.