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Old 26th March 2006, 04:45 PM
manygeese manygeese is offline
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Victoria
Posts: 105
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Quote:
Originally Posted by salty
Hi Many geese

Can you explain a bit more how you work out if the first part of the race was faster than the last 600m. I can understand it in a 1200 metre race, but not sure how to work it out on longer races. I am using Sportsman which gives total race time, and last 600m.
Also can you explain what the letters and numbers after your listed selections stand for?
Many thanks
Salty


I do a proportion. Have been thinking allowances should be made for longer races and ask a little better than quicker for shorter races. Then you could extend the idea right through to distance races.

From the cyberhorse form guide

25/02/06 CF R3 LIVE IN VAIN 15-16* 5.6L, Caulf., 11Fe06, 1400m, C F Orr, G1, (6), $302000, Good, L Nolen, 15, Cd 58.0, (WFA), 1:22.36, (35.63), 20/1, S 2, 12 -, 8 1, T 2, 1-Perfect Promise 55.5

Race time 82.36 seconds Last 600 in 35.36 seconds.
So the first 800 metres was ran in 82.36 - 35.63 = 46.73 seconds.

To convert this to a 600 metre rate you first divide by 800. This gives you the time taken to run 1 metre during the first part of the race. 46.73/800 = 0.0584125 seconds. Multiply this by 600 and you have a comparitive rate. 600 x 0.0584125 = 35.0475 seconds. This figure is less than the 35.63 of the last 600 metres.

That to me indicates that there has been genuine pace in the race. The horse that made that pace I say were the front one or two horse. Perhaps 3.
I have lobbed for the front 25% at the turn anyway which is not necessarily an exact science if you haven't seen the video. Anyway the horse may not have won but the ones that did were not able to match his or her pace once they got wound up.

My little notations

CF R3 5 Live in Vain 5.6l C4 2/16-15 2M G

5.6l I don't use but that is how much it lost by. C4 means Class 4. To me a class 4 horse is a horse with a winning strike rate of 1 in 4. Live in Vain at the time was 25 starts for 7 wins. If it was 7 wins from 21 starts it would be a class 3 horse.
Just my way of doing it. I don't think you get all that far if you are backing horses with a strike rate less than 1 in 6 on a regular basis.

Then 2/16-15. I use cyberhorse form and they give you a horses position at the turn in most cases. Live in Vain was 2 in a field of 16. This definitely says he has made the pace in this race where the first part has been run faster than the last. The 15 means he came 15th but I don't use that either.

2M is my way of determing class change from race to race. I'm not sold on it and it stuff's around a bit from state to state but the prize money in the Orr stakes was 302,000 dollars. The race that Live in Vain is in here is worth 150,700 dollars. Thus the 2M. If the M figures gets down below 0.6 I toss them out.

The g means the form race was run on a good track so I'll only apply it a future good track.

I use colouring to indicate if it was within two lengths at one of it last two starts so that doesn't show up here.

I am looking for an honest horse and wants to win. One that has won before and made the pace in a recent start. Then perhaps blown up in the run home or gone with it and ran a place. Or even won. Next time I expect an honest run again, this time with perhaps a degree of human imput from trainer and jockey.

A lot races get run without genuine pace and the winner comes out of dog's breakfast of a dash at the end. Very hard to ascertain genuine future form from that sort of race.

Incidentally, Strada should not have been selection. Just found that out then. I usually go through it all on Thursday and Friday nights. I was doing a double check on that Saturday afternoon and thought I had found one I missed.
Looks like I have read the the 5 as a 4 in 35.34 which is what it works out to be. The last 600 rate is 34.43. Thought at the time how could I have missed it but I hadn't. The rest will check out pretty sure.

Makes up for missing Lujinator because I couldn't get the bet ezy thing working.

Rapid Reason would not have been selection in this system yesterday with a track upgrade. It was not a pacemaker at its previous start. Just toying around with something else when they are coming down in class.

Hope this helps. A few of the winners have been narrow margins and ALL BAR ONE was a narrow loser but there is a definite principle involved and you might have some fun toying around with it and applying it in some other way. But will post next weeks losers Saturday morning.
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