3rd January 2006, 08:09 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 696
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understanding probabilities
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Originally Posted by punter57
Yes, Kenny that is the question,indeed. However, "statistically" seen the result is "right" every time for Betfair, as stats ONLY work in the long run (they are viewed AFTER THE EVENT, aren't they?) ie toss a coin; 50/50 chance but STILL a 100% chance of one result being correct and the other one NOT. After the 2nd toss (if it comes down on the other side) we say "see 50/50" and so on. Even if it ends up 505 heads to 495 tails it's "close enough" There is no "stat" however, which tells you the outcome of the NEXT event. They are ALWAYS simultaneously 50/50 BUT 100% certain of not being 50% right.
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Punter 57 The two-factor probability brings up an interesting category of study... understanding probabilities that aren't exactly straight-forward, or are counter-intuitive. For a person wagering cash money on races, having a firm foundation in probability is a must. Yet all too many people don't! (So much the better for those that DO!
So here's a simple little probability problem to get started. (I'll post the answer later, if need be)
You are told that a family has two children. You are also told that one of those two children is a girl. Assuming that the biological probability of having either a boy or a girl baby is equal (50-50) then what is the probability that the family ALSO has a boy?
Enjoy
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