29th December 2005, 12:04 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Bundy
Posts: 292
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by jacfin
La Mer
I have seen several studies where the SP market is shown to be far more accurate than even the best ratings over a large sample. The trick for ratings people,of course, is to find the race where the public have it wrong.
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Its not just ratings people that try to find the races where the public have it wrong.
Most ratings people work through race by race waiting for a discrepency,others like myself try to locate those descrepecies before the start of the day.
It's true that odds like those above are a very acurate representation of the actual chance of horses in certain price ranges BUT what isnt so obvious is that many of the horses in say the 10 to $20 price range have a far greater chance than their odds suggest,likewise many have a far worse chance.
The winning % to odds comparison provided by La Mer is just an average taken from thousands of races,individualy the horses odds mean nothing and if you pick and choose your horses its not too hard to find descrepencies.
I'm of the opinion that these descrepencies are easier to find with longer priced horses.
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