Ratings help!
 

Sorry if this sounds completely stupid, but i am just starting out. I do my regular form analysis each week based on all majour factors formline, barrier (you know the rest). I was just wondering how you guys convert this information to establish price ratings such as those expressed in the ratings challenge? For example if i find a horse that i this is the winner, how do i rate this horse at a price? Furthermore, once i do rate say my top 4 runners at prices i assume that if my prices are below those given by TAB or bookmakers that i back the horse?　Any help would be greatly appreciated. Thanks.

Tenacious, you need to allot some kind of figures to each of your factors, add the total for all horses in the race then divide each horses total by the race total this will give you a percentage you can convert to odds. Your last statement is correct about backing the horses that you get better prices for than what you rate them at. Some good sites for free horse ratings are ozeform, Tasmanian tote site. Hope this helps and good luck, youll certainly need it.

Tenacious,

First of all, if you can, you should try to make an assessment of how many lengths or kgs ahead of the field your top horse is. Take a look at the thread on this forum called 'Converting Ratings To Prices'. Might help you out. I'll show you an example from today using the pricing method I explain on that thread.

Here are the weight ratings I worked out for the Mornington Cup today:
8 Kounthekash 68
2 Charnwood Green 67.5
5 Fonome 64
3 Cool Trent 61
10 Highclere 61
1 Gunnamatta 60.5
9 Honest Politician 58
7 Garrard 57.5
13 Go Straight Home 57
11 Lord Of The Pines 55
12 Command 'N' Conquer 55
16 Bikkie Tin Blues 54.5
15 Bounty Beat 53.5
6 Big Pat 49
14 Babe Zaharias 48

Next I convert those ratings to points using a table I've created:
8 Kounthekash 100
2 Charnwood Green 90
5 Fonome 40
3 Cool Trent 18
10 Highclere 18
1 Gunnamatta 16
9 Honest Politician 8
7 Garrard 8
13 Go Straight Home 7
11 Lord Of The Pines 5
12 Command 'N' Conquer 5
16 Bikkie Tin Blues 5
15 Bounty Beat 4
6 Big Pat 2
14 Babe Zaharias 1

The total of all the points is 327. Now I divide 327 by each horse's score and round up or down to get a price:
8 Kounthekash $3.25
2 Charnwood Green $3.65
5 Fonome $8.20
3 Cool Trent $18.15
10 Highclere $18.15
1 Gunnamatta $20.45
9 Honest Politician $40.90
7 Garrard $40.90
13 Go Straight Home $46.70
11 Lord Of The Pines $65.40
12 Command 'N' Conquer $65.40
16 Bikkie Tin Blues $65.40
15 Bounty Beat $81.75
6 Big Pat $163
14 Babe Zaharias $327

One thing though. Unlike my example, you don't actually have to work out a rating or a price for every horse if you don't want to. If you are confident that you've sorted out the top 5 or 6 horses, you can just rate those.

Hope all that helps you out in some way. Any questions, just ask.

Plagiarism?.NO?
How is your table different than,say,Don Scotts?

My original table was similar to Scott's (I mentioned that on the other thread), but it certainly wasn't identical and my revised table is more different again.

Hi Tenacious,
In another thread I have posted http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=7676
a spreadsheet that will provide a Statistical Weighting to each Factor ranking, provided you keep records for each Factor your using in your Handicapping you can use my spreadsheet to create a Probability line by using either of two methods from that sheet, i'll detail one using the ROE indicator, as the other is complex but a lot more precise.

Method A) Using the ROE indicator (from the spreadsheet), this is called the Ratio of Observed to Expected.
1. Compute the ROE figure for each ranked runner for each Factor.
2. For each runner MULTIPLY the ROE for each Factor together and then MULTIPLY the final total by 10.
3. This is the Individual Ability rating for each runner.
4. TOTAL all the runners Individual Ability ratings
5. DIVIDE each runners Ind. Ability rating by the TOTAL
6. These are your Projected Probabilities

If you don't have records nor win rates for each Factor you could look at INDEXING each Factor using 60 as the minimum score. an 100 as the highest rating, then computing much along the lines as above

I am completely and utterly confused.

Sportz, i think i have completely misunderstood your system. But are you saying that the highest weighted horse in the race always rates the highest using your method? :S

Lol i know i am talking to myself here just at the moment, but do you mean you allocate 100 points to the actual top weight rated horse as per what it is literally going to be carrying in the race. OR do you establish a weight that you THINK it should be carrying and if so how do you establish that. IE. A horse is going to carry 54kg's on saturday but you think it should be carrying 58kg's? Is that what you are getting at?

No.

It's not a system at all. It's simply a method for pricing horses once you've worked out your final ratings.

Even if you don't work out weight ratings like me, you should try to work out an asessment of how much in front of the field your top rated horse is. Let's say you work out that there are 6 chances in a race. You should then try to put them in order based on how far behind the top rated horse you think they all are. Again using that Mornington Cup from yesterday, here was my top 6:

Top rated - Kounthekash
0.5 kgs behind - Charnwood Green
4.0 kgs behind - Fonome
7.0 kgs behind - Cool Trent
7.0 kgs behind - Highclere
7.5 kgs behind - Gunnamatta

Now, if you use the table I posted yesterday on the thread titled "Converting Ratings To Prices", you can allot points to each of those runners. In this case:

100 Kounthekash
90 Charnwood Green
40 Fonome
18 Cool Trent
18 Highclere
16 Gunnamatta

Now, add up all those points and the total is 282. Divide 282 by each horse's score, round up or down and you get:

$2.80 Kounthekash
$3.15 Charnwood Green
$7.05 Fonome
$15.65 Cool Trent
$15.65 Highclere
$17.65 Gunnamatta

I hope all that helps in some way. Now the hard bit is ctually trying to get the horses into some sort of order for each race. If you want a site with ratings for each run, try Ozeform or the Tasmanian TAB site.