Pre Post favs (again)
 

Still pursuing this one, have noticed that races at 2000m and above and also races of LESS than 1000m don't fare so well.

Has anyone got any real data on this, i.e say using actual favs?? any help appreciated.

Hi Partypooper,

Ive been down this road before,people spend hours compiling their own ratings then converting them to odds etc but dont end up with a product that could out perform the pre post.

Id be looking for top raters in races with well exposed form who are race fit.

Yesterdays Gold Coast meeting for example-

Race1-exposed form, fav for 5443, fit, bet- 1st 2.40 1.60
Race2-3yo race-ignore
Race3-2yo race-ignore
Race4-exposed form-fav form 1211, fit,bet- 2nd x 1.50
Race5-exposed form, fav form44x1, won last start, fit, bet- 1st 2.30 1.40
Race6-exposed form, fav form 18x2,fitness doubt, no bet
Race7-exposed form,fav form 13x3, fitness doubt, no bet
Race8-3yo race-ignore

So we end up with 3 bets for 2 wins and 3 placings returning $4.70 and $4.50 nsw tab instead of the 8 bets for 2 wins and a loss like most people see.

Playing around with this today,think the idea is a good one not entirely sure about the filters yet,anyhow


SR1-3
SR4-2
SR6-2
SR7-3
SR8-5

BR2-1
BR6-2
BR7-3

AR4-2
AR5-2
AR6-4
AR7-4

WR5-1
WR6-6
WR7-4

MR6-3
MR7-7

PR4-4
PR5-3
PR6-5
PR8-4

Dale - I do like your response.

Can you clarify some things for me? What do you consider a race with exposed form for example (a) of a certain race type eg group 1s , welters or (b) for example any race with all horses having 3 or more starts?

In your example I understand 5543 race form as race fit. Can't quite see x1 as ok and x2 and x3 as fitness doubts - Can you elaborate? I also have the second up phobia, so prob wouldn't go down this track. Rather 3rd , 4th or 5th run from a spell - anyway that is just another slant. Best of luck Dale.

Partypooper, although not much of a punter, I don't like any races over 1600. Distance races can be of questionable quality and pace eg Frid night MValley 2400m come to mind. I have no data to back this up, but feel races < or = 1600 are truer run races and prob more likely to suit a PPF. Sorry for the rant

Also forgot - Dale where do you source your pre-post prices from?

Cheers Tony

We ended up with 21 bets,7 wins returning $19.90.

Interestingly all up today there were 48 races for 19 wins returning $58.40.

Hey Peakester,

In this instance i smply ignored 2yo,3yo and maiden races.

Again i was looking at it simply and suggesting that if a horse had a recent win it suggested it was fit and included them along with those that had had four or more runs this campaign.

Might be worth just looking at those with four or more runs this campaign,let me know if you come up with anything.

Cheers.

Thanks for the replies guys, I can see I am not alone with my interest in Pre post favs.

What I was hoping for is someone with the required database can show increased performance of actual favs if races of 2000 and above and races of LESS than 1000metres are deleted?? still hoping?

Not sure youll find anything there Party,the prices are formulated with the distance known,i cant see the performace being affected by the distance.

That said though things like big open fields you might find in staying races and unreliable races full of resumers like you might find in a short sprint race could make them a little more unreliable but its not anything you wouldnt find in races over 1000m to less than 2000m.

For example a 1600m race with 20 starters or a 1200m race with half the field including the favorite resuming from a spell are going to be races where the overall strike rate is lower also,

Dale, yes point taken we always seem to end up with SR-V- Divies. Though the gap is getting narrower now it seems with some of the products avaialble, best tote etc.

I've tried only backing overs and same story, increased divie, + decreased S/R.