Corowa Track Condition on 08/07/2013
 

Hi Darky,

Corowa was officially Dead,
Our Initial post race analysis puts the race time variant in the Dead range.

Providing that the race times are correct (we'll verify this over the next few days) the the track condition is somewhere near Dead over all.

That does not mean there weren't wetter and dryer patches throughout.

Echuca was officially Slow upgraded to Dead.
Our initial post race analysis shows the race time variant was more like Heavy to Slow.

Muswellbrook was officially Slow upgraded to Dead
Our initial post race time analysis shows it may have been in the Dead to Good range.

Sunshine Coast was officially Heavy
Our initial post race analysis shows that it was a Bog.

Its interesting to see what the times tell you and what the eyes see and what we perceive.

Kind regards

Thank you Michel.
Its great to get a Professionals viewpoint
I also take note of your comment on perception.
Will be most interested in any further post anylisis.

Cheers.
darky

Hi Darky,

We don't really plan to make this a regular feature. However if you want to know just ask we'll be happy to oblige.

The comment regarding perception is probably a very underrated part of punting. The fact that we, as humans, are likely to notice what we want to see, is lost on most punters, to their detriment. It's easy to explain. Every time you devise a method, you must notice that all of a sudden you see that pattern everywhere. Or if you bought a car, or thinking about it, you'll all of a sudden start to see all the same cars on the road, where as before, when you weren't tuned into looking at THAT particular car, you never really noticed them.

This kind of perception is the undoing of all the systems/methods/ideas that are introduced and abandoned on this and many other forums. Especially when those methods are devised from a handful of instances, manually collected (susceptible to errors), over a week or a month. Its too much work, and they just don't survive the reality of punting. Don't get me wrong, that is how it all starts, even for us, the difference is that it finishes in a test encompassing hundreds of thousands of horses and ALL the instances of the idea to get a proper unbiased determination without emotion or errors.

Going back to my car analogy, I'll try to explain the above statement. Lets say that you are switching from a Toyota to a Holden. All of a sudden your eye catches all the other Holden cars that are your type. In fact you could formulate a hypothesis that it is the most driven car on the road or that the smart people drive these and so on. What you are not looking at is all the other cars, you may be looking, but you do not consciously notice. If you undertook some kind of survey, you would know that for every 1 Holden there is x number of Toyotas, x number of Fords and so on. Only then and based on a large enough sample could you start to formulate an opinion based on ACTUAL evidence that encompass the entire picture.

It is that entire picture that is the missing part of most punters arsenal when they formulated statements like "Odds on Look on, Wet tracks look on, Posting selections on forum angers the punting gods, Forum Curse and so on; they are observations usually steeped in emotion and based on limited personal evidence. What then happens is that another punter with the same level of evidence (lost yesterday on a one odds on fave) comes in to corroborate and that is how most of the dogmas of punting are born.

Kind Regards

Great post and thanks.

Its always good for me to ask occasionaly a question or 2 from a thinking Pofessional on matters I am unsure about and I thank you for that.

Cheers.
darky