OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums

Quote:

Originally Posted by walkermac

The highest CD of the last 20 Melbourne Cup winners: 0.7 (Jameka and Rose of Virginia have larger ones)

The highest DI of the last 20 Melbourne Cup winners: 5.4 [2.52 was the next highest] (Rose of Virginia has a larger one)

Lowest Stamina number of the past 20 winners (except for Rogan Josh, which I couldn't figure out): 12 (Wicklow Brave, Almoonqith, Excess Knowledge, Pentathlon, Qewy and Rose of Virginia are lower)

Pedigreely speaking, if the pace is true - as several trainers have indicated it will be - I like Big Orange and Secret Number as winning chances; Curren Mirotic and Who Shot Thebarman to place (who would actually be best suited of all, but their ages and barrier are concerning...)

A moderate pace: Big Orange, Exospherical, Grand Marshal, Heartbreak City, Almandin, Secret Number.

Pedigree wins?

To my eye it didn't look like the super pace that was expected and the placings seemed to bear that out.

Almandin 1st (Monsun now sire of 3 of the past 4 winners).

Heartbreak City 2nd. The 'must have a lead-up run in Australia' hoodoo continues....

Secret Number led into the straight (probably shooting itself in the foot in taking up running as the pace threatened to slacken off; not sure where he finished).

Who Shot Thebarman a fast finishing 5th (as you might expect). Exospheric was in 8th. Big Orange (10th) didn't look comfortable at all to me: saw him stop and prop a few times and throw his head about. No idea where Grand Marshal and Curren Mirotic got to.

Rose of Virginia looked the worst prior to the race and finished that way. The figures similarly hinted that Jameka wasn't a shot at victory. Qewy (4th) was the only one to do alright amongst those listed as being notably different from past winners.