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-   -   CLASS!!! What is it?? (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=9429)

punter57 24th May 2005 10:14 AM

CLASS!!! What is it??
 
The eternal question! I think it's average prizemoney won in the horses last three months RACING (exclude spells), with it's biggest payday deducted from the calculation.This tells you in one hit that the horse has been doing better than the others RECENTLY(or up until it spelled) and the numbers are not distorted by some fluke "big one". If that day was not a fluke then there were others to bolster the average.
The only proviso is that today's race must be a "suitable" distance and ......"suitable" prizemoney (ie at least it's average win amount). The reason for this is that we don't expect Makybe Diva to win at 1400 despite having an average far superior to the others. Likewise I don't expect a horse to be really "sent" to win a $25000 first prize when it's been cleaning up in million dollar races. That looks too much like "practice" to me and I'll wait 'til the trainer is serious.Cheers

davez 24th May 2005 01:09 PM

CLASS
 
rightly or wrongly i rarely use prizemoney as a definitive guide when trying to establish the class of a field or a runner, perhaps this is so because the majority of my punting is on the provincial meets & then usually on the weaker events, the lowly class 1 to 4's, with the odd maiden or 2 thrown in for fun.

so is there a difference in class between a $8k c3 on a tuesday at kyneton and a $7k c3 at hamilton on a sunday? yes, usually & no, not always. do i need to know the prizemoney values to work this out? no.

as i have mentioned a few times before anyone tackling these types of races firstly needs to understand how racing is conducted within each state that the punter wants to bet on, watch the movement of horses & jockeys within that region, look for the improvers coming thru & the trainer that can actually do his job, that being to place his horses in the correct company.

so what is CLASS? i duno, perhaps it is a mostly unknowable element of racing that we as punters rely on others to identify for us - the "others" being the trainer who knows what he is doing & the handicapper who isnt to harsh.

Chrome Prince 24th May 2005 01:43 PM

Class is the prizemoney won taking the average of the race field.

Example:

10 runners
Add up the api of all runners and divide by 10
The horse that wins ths race gets that figure - not the advertised prizemoney.

This should give you a better guide and allows you to allocate your own prizemoney figure based on placing all the way down to the last runner!

Privateer 24th May 2005 05:07 PM

When someone says "so-and-so is the class horse in this race", they usually mean one of two things; (1) the horse has proven outstanding physical ability (recently displayed or not) which sets the horse apart from the others, or (2) the horse is the only one in the field that is dropping back in grade from its most recent start.

shoto 24th May 2005 07:52 PM

Interesting idea, CP, but doesn't that only give you a figure for the winner of the race? What about the placegetters, or what about a horse that ran 2 lengths 6th in a Group1 event contesting an open hcp next start?

Chrome Prince 24th May 2005 08:36 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by shoto
Interesting idea, CP, but doesn't that only give you a figure for the winner of the race? What about the placegetters, or what about a horse that ran 2 lengths 6th in a Group1 event contesting an open hcp next start?


Hi shoto, it allows you to allocate your own prizemoney on whatever scale you choose according to the placings right up to last placing if you wish.

mememe 29th May 2005 03:25 PM

Database
 
hi Chrome Prince,
I'd like to talk to you about your filemaker database
I need to set something up & it looks like you've already done all the work!

an you email me at winners@aanet.com.au and hopefully we can work something out

cheers, Mark

punter57 31st May 2005 01:04 PM

To Chrome Prince (or anyone else who can explain). What is "api" and what does your first reply MEAN??? Can you show me how to use your idea where the 10 horses each have,say an api (whatever it is) of 10000,9000,8000,7000,6000,5000,4000,3000,2000,1000 = 55000 (divided by 10 equals 5500). Now what? Do you use a CAREER averages (ie the horse won millions when it was 2 or 3) even if the horse has gone downhill of late? Anyway,hoping for a reply. Cheers

La Mer 31st May 2005 01:48 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by punter57
To Chrome Prince (or anyone else who can explain). What is "api" and what does your first reply MEAN??? Can you show me how to use your idea where the 10 horses each have,say an api (whatever it is) of 10000,9000,8000,7000,6000,5000,4000,3000,2000,1000 = 55000 (divided by 10 equals 5500). Now what? Do you use a CAREER averages (ie the horse won millions when it was 2 or 3) even if the horse has gone downhill of late? Anyway,hoping for a reply. Cheers


API stands for Average Prizemoney Index, which derived by dividing a horse's prizemoney by its number of starts in a race. It can be very misleading, i.e a horse when younger in its career won a race with prizemoney that totalled $500,000 for first place. Even five years or more later that prizemoney would still be included in the horse's total prizemoney and could totally distort how the horse had performed over the last year or so as it could have not won a race during that time perod. Better still, but a little more difficult to determine, is to use only the prizemoney a horse has won in the last one ot two years (Personally, I use the last twelve months in most cases).

punter57 1st June 2005 02:07 PM

Thanks La Mer. It was the "Index" that stumped me. In my original posting the problem of long-gone "glory days" was what I was getting at when I suggested a limited time-span ( I thought 3 months of ACTUAL racing, but maybe that's too little ) for including winnings to be used for an average. I'm also wary of the single "Big Win" which also distorts the average so I drop the BIGGEST payday from the stats. For example some 2yo might have won $100000 in 5 races (ie 20000 average) and suddenly land 250000 for THIRD in the Golden Slipper at 100-1. Immediately it becomes a $60000 average horse, despite not being able to repeat that fluke performance again and theoretically being 3 times "classier" than it was the day before. Now ,can someone explain Chrome Prince's idea of allocating your own prizemoney,please?


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