I have few times tried to explain what I do, but it is very hard to do so.
Here is a classic example of what I look for.
This is my one and only bet for the day.

Wagga R2

Bookie sites had Instructed as the fav and it remained the fav throughout the betting, at around $3.5
My Marwina was the 3rd fav at $4.6, it was $6.0 something on nswtab and $8.0 something on unitab.
Getting around the last 3 mins it came on sky that the only one they???? wanted to back was My Marwina, so what happens all the SHEEP back My Marwina and Instructed blew out.
Instructed went from middle 3's to middle 4's on the tab, My Marwina went from 6's to middle 3's
When I put my bet on as they were going into the barrier Instructed was showing $2.5 for the place.
$3.6 win books and $2.5 place tab,now surely none of you can say that is not good value.
Instucted finished paying $4.6 win and $2.1 place on nswtab, and $3.6 win and $1.5 place on books.
The way I read the race was a reasonable amount of money was put on My Marwina to start the SHEEP following so that Instructed would blow out.
It is worth it for certain people to WASTE money on a horse to let the odds on their selection blow out.
Instructed paid $2.1 so thats $440 for the day.
This is the way I try to read odds, it doesn't always work BUT I will guarantee I
have LESS losing days than having a 10 year database and or doing the form everyday.

Cheers

Good call Kenchar. :smile:

Yes, your ideas are highly appreciated --- by many, not just me, I'm sure.

Thanks Guys much appreciated.

The strange thing about all this is if someone asked me in a couple of days time who was my winning bet today my answer would probably be " stuffed if I know ".

That's what I love about what I do, no crap, no study etc.

Since the race I have mowed the lawns, cleaned the pool, and I am just sipping ( guzzling) on my first Chardonnay. :grin:

Kenchar i know you don't know who won in a few days time...but will you record the bet so you know what you won

YUP

Actually Shaun I have been meaning to Email you.

Remember all the things We discussed about form, ratings on unitab etc trying to find the grail, well one day I just thought to myself go back to what I did years ago, no form, don't wanna know their name, don't care if they got 3 or 5 legs, (depending on the sex) :smile: Just joking, but honestly since I forgot all the usual crap which has been bandied around for eternity I have never been happier.

It really isn't that hard, you just have to be a bit street wise ( in relation to racing ).
The biggest problem with what I do is the boredom waiting for something to show up.

I ALWAYS remember what a very succesfull person said to me many many years ago.

THE AVERAGE PERSON IS TOO OCCUPIED WORKING FOR A LIVING TO EARN MONEY TO SEE THE OPPORTUNITIES TO MAKE MONEY.

That has stuck in my mind all my life.



I really think what I am trying to get across to you lot out there, is that IT CAN BE DONE.

JUST LOOK OUTSIDE THE CIRCLE THAT HAS BEEN AROUND FOR A 100 YEARS



[ This Message was edited by: kenchar on 2004-10-28 19:24 ]

[ This Message was edited by: kenchar on 2004-10-28 19:26 ]

[ This Message was edited by: kenchar on 2004-11-02 20:12 ]

Good post Kenchar, the numbers don't lie :smile:

A.

This is a great post Kenchar, just the sort of insight I read this forum to see. I do take a little umbrage with your last paragraph however.

Quote:
"This is the way I try to read odds, it doesn't always work BUT I will guarantee I
have LESS losing days than having a 10 year database and or doing the form everyday."

As a man who loves his (unfortunately limited) database the jist of your story pointed to the sheep following the betting moves. I would hope the database users and form students would have made their selections on the merits of the horses not last minute plunges.

For racing pleasure it's not the size of your database that counts it's the way that you use it. :smile:

KV

What kenchar means..is that the form and the way most people select horses has been over done...everyone has different ways they pick thier horses but basicly they are all very similar....Kenchar has been there and done that...he know has a different approach of trying to read a race by the way the bets are placed...he doesn't just use the tab as that can be misleading but takes his information from many places....this has been working for him very well....is he doing this wrong...no...just different and if it works good on him for trying it....he bets for the place by the way and if i am not mistaked gets fixed prices this can be handy when place betting.....if you look at the past greats of the betting ring they all had one thing in common they had thier own ideas of how to bet...not just follow the rest....just because it is not the norm does not make it wrong....with the varied types of betting today and the options you have to place your bet where you want there is no reason why a new way to win can't be found (or should i say has been found) but is not widely used because people don't understand it....good luck to anyone that can win constantly i just hope it does not become like the race form of today in ten years time

I am definitely going to have to take another look at this after the day I had. Seriously, I can't believe how many 2nds I had today and most of them were at reasonable place divs of $1.60, $1.70, $1.80. Kenchar, have you changed the way you actually get your selection though? I think you used to go for 3rd or 4th favourite in the early betting markets, didn't you??? Is it at all possible to do anything with pre-post markets for this idea? I note that Instructed was 4th favourite in the paper I have.

KennyVictor,
Sorry if I offended, none was meant, it's just my way of expressing myself.

Shaun,
You summed it up perfectly, except the 10 year bit, as I will probably be in the big betting ring in the sky by then.

Sportznut,
It is sort of similar to what I was doing, except the form bit.
Remember my biggest problem was sorting out which one to back out of the 2 or 3 by looking at cyberhorse form.
Now I mainly just look at odds and betting moves.
I am usually on the 3rd or 4th fav as I am looking for the $2 or better place.
Yesterday was a perfect bet for me as in that scenario they will run a place 99 times out of a 100.
No nothing to do with prepost.
About the only form I do now ( if you can call it that ) is as previously mentioned, I look for horses that have been racing in nsw, haven't had a start for a year and pop up in qld, and are running in a lot lower class race than previously.
There is no magic formula, and I have losing days as well.
I still believe a lot to do with any success I have is my hit and run way of betting, ( although there are many many out there that don't agree with this ****.
A little slice daily adds up to a nice big pie at the end of the month.
Oh just one more thing I no longer bet on saturdays or big meetings midweek, e.g Melbourne Cup day.

Absolutely no offence taken mate, keep up the good work.
KV

Hi Kenchar,
Great post, i have been hoping you would come back and tell us how you have been doing.You have inspired me to look at trying to do the same, however i am no where near the level that you are in regards to bet size but if i can find a consistant method of selection i'm sure it will build it's self up.Please keep us informed as to how you are going as it is great reading and as i said very inspiring.
cheers
Geoffro

Please tell me you're at least going to have a small bet on the Cup???

Actually I fibbed, I am booked in for lunch with a few friends ( prepaid) and I will be taking $100 with me to have a bit of fun with $5 bets.

That's better. :smile:

The Melbourne Cup is one race that everyone should at least have a little interest in. (even professionals who wouldn't normally bet on a 3200m Hcp with 24 runners)

Actually, in recent years, I've done very well betting on the other races at Flemington on Cup day. And pretty well on the Cup too. If only I could get a trifecta or first 4. In each of the last two Cups, I've had 1st, 3rd, 4th and 5th!!!


[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-10-29 07:44 ]

Hey Kenchar
how did things pan out today.
With my trying to emulate your idea it took 6 bets today to get 2pts clear actually 2.9pts.
if i was only after 1 pt would have got it first bet werrebi r1 NO5
At the moment i am only testing on paper but the last 3 days have done the job.
the hardest thing to determine at the moment is whether to back my selection or not because there is so much money that goes on in the last 30seconds that it can change a $2.10 place chance to a $1.60 chance.(************)
Question? How long did you test your idea before you went live with it.
cheers
geoffro

geoffro,

I didn't bet today as my Wife and Kids left for a 3 week overseas holiday and I have been at the airport.

In relation to testing, from memory when I first thought of place betting I think it was 1 to 2 weeks.



As far as what am currently doing it just evolved from what I had been doing and calling on my memory from many many years ago in relation to working to odds and markets.

As far as 1 point or 2 or 3, I have found it much better just going for 1.
I used to go for 2 but since I doubled my bet and now go for 1,I find it a lot easier.
50% of the time I am out first bet.
It is more risky as far as the size of the bet, but less risky to get out for the day.

If you are going to place a bet you HAVE to sign up to a fixed odds site, that's where I place the majority of my bets.

Try to look for horses that are blowing out and not coming in if you are going to bet on the tab.

If the race has an odds on fav, leave it alone as it will invariably run a hole so you are cutting yourself down to 2 chances, and also in odds on races a lot of punters back other horses to place and you lose all value.

It really isn't that hard, the main thing is you have to have a lot of patience while waiting for a bet.

DON"T BE GREEDY.( VERY IMPORTANT )
Too many punters want to win a $100 and they are having $10 bets.

That's just too hard and that is why the majority fail.

I wish you all the luck in the world and hope it pans out for you.

Hi Kenchar,
Thanks heaps for answering,
baching it for 3 weeks hey tuff
I looked at what i had on paper so far and the 3 days i would have been finished for the day after 1 bet so it makes sense to go for the 1 pt and double the bet.
Im not sure if you are allowed to on this forum or not but can you suggest a fixed place odds site, if you cant on here i'll give you my e-mail.
gcdennisATnetcentralDOTCOMDOTAU
I take your point about being greedy, while doing this on paper it hasn't been that hard to watch the races go bye without having a bet but i am sure it will take a bit more will power when its real and i am behind on the day.
Anyway thanks again for sharing with us all, i for one greatly appreciate it.
cheers
Geoffro

geoffro,

The best site I have found is,

SPORTZNUT.com.au BUT DELETE ZNUT and add ODDS.

Hi Kenchar,
Had a look at that site and created an account but i cant see how you can get fixed odds for every race only on some, is this usually the case or am i missing something.

geoffro,

Fixed odds are on horse racing only, not dogs or trots.

When you log on go to horse racing on the left hand side of page.

A screen will come up showing about 4 next to go races.

Scroll down the page and all races for the day will be shown.

Just click on the race you want and the fixed odds will be shown, BUT these do not display until about 15 mins prior to that particular race. Thats about the minimum time, sometimes it is longer.

Hope that's clear.

[ This Message was edited by: kenchar on 2004-10-30 07:20 ]

:lol: