OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums - Ratings2Win Home Track Advantage - Does it exist and can you profit from it?

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Ratings2Win Home Track Advantage - Does it exist and can you profit from it?

Ratings2Win Home Track Advantage - Does it exist and can you profit from it?
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There has always been debate from form analysts and media commentators regarding the issue of whether a home track advantage exists for individual trainers. Some examples of this would be Peter Snowden (Warwick Farm), Gai Waterhouse (Randwick), and Chris Waller (Rosehill).

Can you make money from horses that have a Home Track Advantage?

The statistics show that for metropolitan racing the notion of home track advantage does not exist. The same does not apply though to provincial and country racing. In these jurisdictions our data demonstrates conclusively that when combined with a few other unique variables (found only in R2W data) that the home track advantage can deliver significant profits from a strong sample size.

So the answer to can you make money from horses that have a home track advantage? is YES, providing you have access to the unique data and variables contained within R2W Axis.

Following on from our successful Profitable Favourites system, we have once again employed the Axis Selection Finder and Analyser for the purposes of developing a system based around the Home Track Advantage theme. For a limited period of time the FREE selections from this system will be showcased on this forum and our website. They will take over from the Profitable Favourites selections.

The historical results for the Home Track Advantage system are as follows:

Long term Results: 05/03/2010 to 31/07/2013. 1245 days.
Cumulative Number of Bets - 2,822
(2 per day on average)
Strike Rate - 28.2%
Positive POT 14.30% (best of NSW/SP).

See the historical results file updated to end of July 2013 (attached to this thread)

Details: These selections are bets regardless of price or track condition. Expect around 2 selections per day on average.

Betting Analysis: (assumes the better of SP or NSW tote)

Assumes a starting bank of $10,000.

Flat Staking betting 1% of starting bank: $40,522.00, maximum bank risk 22.4% and average bank risk 9.8%.

Constant Proportional betting to collect 4% of starting bank: $24,128.69, maximum bank risk 19.3% and average bank risk 8.5%.

Variable Proportional betting to collect 4% of bank: $57,662.25, maximum bank risk 52.8% and average bank risk 11.7%.

Importantly you can obtain the rules for any system found on this forum or our website by purchasing the appropriate Axis stater pack and annual subscription. Please contact Neil for more details http://www.propun.com.au/contact/

Code:

01/08/2013 
13:07 COFFS 2   13 Skatedate
15:31 COFFS 6   4  Dont Get Me Rong
15:50 ROCKY 6   12 Black Point

Code:

03/08/2013 
11:25 GOLD  1   2  Giant Crusher
14:35 KEMBL 5   6  Country Hustle
15:15 KEMBL 6   5  Arms Length
15:45 GOLD  8   1  Whisky Highway
17:12 CALOU 1   1  Pickabee

Code:

04/08/2013 
14:20 CALOU 4   3  Surf Fire
15:16 CARNV 4   1  Aytozed 
15:31 CALOU 6   3  Ten To Zero 
15:49 KALGL 2   7  Light N Easy
17:40 KALGL 5   6  Last Charge

no selections 05/08/2013

Code:

06/08/2013 
13:20 TVILL 1   5  Little Elliot 
16:50 TAREE 7   11 Reckon Im Ransom

Code:

07/08/2013 
No selections

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08/08/2013 
No selections

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09/08/2013 
14:35 GEESY 7   1  Jordan 
16:05 WYONG 7   6  I Like The Boy 
16:15 IPSWI 7   7  Tigerprint 
16:45 WYONG 8   4  Centabeel

Code:

10/08/2013 
15:45 GOLD  7   1  Brigadoon Jack

Code:

11/08/2013 
14:00 CRANB 6   6  Soldiers March 
15:44 KALGL 2   4  Bear Rio   
15:48 CRANB 9   10 True Brave  
16:55 KALGL 4   2  Full Metal Jacket 
17:35 KALGL 5   8  Jenkye

Code:

12/08/2013 
13:23 TAMWT 3   6  Dayzari 
13:58 TAMWT 4   6  Rainbow Dane

Code:

13/08/2013 
12:55 MORNI 4   9  Nordic But Nice
13:02 MURWI 1   1  Rapid Heartbreaker
13:30 MORNI 5   2  Excursions
15:22 MURWI 5   1  Caldetes
15:40 CALOU 5   4  Auguste

A nice spring back to take the method back to normal performance yesterday.

Code:

14/08/2013 
15:48 STRAT 6   2  Dunrossil

Continues to impress

Hi All

Further to the official posting of free tips for our current system Home Track Advantage I thought I would attach the current betting results (albeit for a short period) as a means of showing what type of analysis can be produced from our betting analyser module that forms part of all Axis subscription levels.

Whilst the analysis currently shows a strike rate of around 24% (20% below long term performance) the profits enjoyed betting proportionally to collect 4% of your starting bank have delivered profit of around 18% POT.

Code:

15/08/2013 
13:05 ROCKY 1   8  Space Jam 
16:10 ROCKY 6   12 Dumuzi

Code:

16/08/2013 
14:13 ACTON 4   4  Argentine Queen 
14:40 GEESY 5   7  Tiger Jack
16:05 ACTON 7   2  Game Of Chance

Code:

18/08/2013
13:35 CALOU 3   12 Petroni              
15:22 CALOU 6   3  Surf Fire            
15:30 PAKEN 5   2  Aussie Public        
15:57 CALOU 7   1  On The Deck          
17:35 KALGL 5   2  Prince Of Stars

Code:

No selections for today (19/08/2013)

Code:

20/08/2013 
14:30 MACKA 2   8  Soap Box Sally       
15:05 MACKA 3   5  Littlemissperfect    
16:18 MACKA 5   1  Lexcen

Code:

No selections for today (21/08/2013)

Code:

22/08/2013 
14:25 HAWK2 4   6  Magita

Code:

23/08/2013 
16:45 GEESY 8   2  Jordan

Code:

24/08/2013 
14:02 TVILL 3   1  Cousin Andy          
20:55 CALOU 7   3  Waynes Gift

Code:

25/08/2013 
13:35 CALOU 3   5  Kappytain            
15:49 KALGL 2   9  Riddle

Code:

26/08/2013 
13:50 WBOOL 3   9  Smile Coming Thru    
14:25 WBOOL 4   1  Arties Shore

Code:

27/08/2013 
13:23 TAMWT 1   2  Maughan              
14:05 BDSRT 2   8  Geiger Baby          
16:28 BDSRT 6   1  Daads Order

Code:

28/08/2013 
No selections today

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29/08/2013 
12:20 MORNI 1   9  Swiss Flyer          
14:45 MORNI 5   5  Tricky Boy

Code:

30/08/2013 
17:10 ACTON 8   3  Doubtful Miss

Code:

31/08/2013 
14:05 GOLD  4   5  Spurs And Sashes     
17:02 ARMDL 6   1  Rhodonite            
17:35 CALOU 1   2  Overrule             
18:12 CARNV 4   1  Aytozed             
19:29 CARNV 6   1  In Plain Sight       
19:57 CALOU 5   3  Tambos Jewel

Code:

01/09/2013 
16:15 BALLN 6   5  Magic Shuffle 
16:55 BALLN 7   5  Lolas Choice 
19:10 KALGL 7   1  Prince Of Stars

August Monthly Update

Home track Advantage August Results;

Bets 66
Wins 12

SR 18.2%
POT -30%

Not the best of starts, especially with 17 outs during the run. That's punting and we just keep going. Not yet ready to bow out to the forum curse. These figures are normal in the process of obtaining the results that we get and while they are not pleasant to endure they are part and parcel of punting and we report it the way it is.

Code:

02/09/2013 
16:55 WODON 7   1  Providential

Quote:

Originally Posted by Michal

Morning Michal,
Where might you expect the SR to be over the longer term, ball park?

LG

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lord Greystoke

Morning Michal,
Where might you expect the SR to be over the longer term, ball park?

LG

Hi LG. In answer to your question see initial post below

http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthr...05&page=4&pp=10

Post #1

Thanks Paul - noted.
A good example of variance, I believe.

Cheers LG

Quote:

Originally Posted by PaulD01

Code:

02/09/2013 
16:55 WODON 7   1  Providential

Nice to start September on the right note with 1 selection for a winner. Top Fluctuation $10 SP $6

Code:

03/09/2013 
14:15 MACKA 2   6  Rofranoz             
14:50 MACKA 3   2  Payteevee            
16:38 MACKA 6   2  Lexcen               
17:10 TAMWT 7   1  Elsalinda

Code:

04/09/2013 
13:05 CRANB 3   2  Dehere Cat		 
16:05 CRANB 8   8  Rich Jack