My first system attempt
 

Okay so enough take and time to give.

I've been playing around with the 1st 5 favourites according the Newspaper the morning or the day before for years. I know there is a system there, I just have to find it. I am a probability person more so than a form or class person. So to speak!

I got some ideas for how to trim down my selections over the past few days since joining this forum. The S/R for each of the favourites are okay but not enough to sustain by themselves at a flat bet.

I used the Saturdays and Wednesdays of the past few weeks to begin with.

Here are the % S/R to win for each of the 1st 5:

1st 24%
2nd 14%
3rd 9%
4th 9%
5th 8%

I never like to bet on the 1st favourite because I don't like to bet in volume so a 1.30 win to me is next to useless compared to the risk. 2nd is often not much better.

The average wins over this same period is:

1st $3.46
2nd $5.16
3rd $8.36
4th $7.23
5th $14.41

3rd, 4th and 5th are much better average wins but by themselves, their S/R would kill me. So I looked at combining them.

Betting on 3rd, 4th and 5th would return 24% of the time. That gives me a S/R matching the favourites with potentially some bigger returns. On average the dividend split over 3 places betted upon, may not be much greater than the $3.46 but sometimes they can hit the roof.

So I decided to look into weighting the bets based on a total bet for each race of $10. So if 3rd favourite was listed as 11/2 and 4th was 7/1 and 5th was 8/1, the bets would be rounded up to be $4 on 3rd, $3 on 4th and $3 on 5th with the intent of either paying off all the outlay and returning a profit.

Applying this to my last few weeks of Sats and Weds I get 90 races which would have cost me $897 and returned $814 for a loss of $83. Pretty close. Now I just need to fine tune which races I ignore to increase my S/R on the ones that can really pull it off.

After fiddling around with the odds for each I settled upon this:

3rd fav has to be at least 6/1
4th fav has to be at least 8/1
5th fav has to be at least 10/1
drop any race that has a fav over 100/1 (optional as risk to reward ratio is too great to be ignored for that one off win)

So the new figures are:
Outlay $183
Return $370
Profit +$187

I am pretty happy with that even though the perfectionist inside of me says "is this the best I can find?"

I will leave this for a while and test it out. I may even pluck up the courage to drop selections in here each morning (never tried it on midweek meets but willing to check it out).

Feedback/ideas/flaming arrows?

I realise all is good in retrospect but the truth will come to light soon enough.

Try this

.Target the top 5 in Pre-post

.Compare their Pre-post price to Betchoices opening price (far LHS)

.Bet all of those 5 that have a shorter price on Betchoice when compared to Pre-post price.

.Bet these at 1.3 units

.The remainders of the 5 are bet at 1.0 unit.

.Don't touch races with odds-on Favs.

What you will find is the very high number of success from those that have the 1.3 units on them.

Your run of outs will be minimal.

Try & bet with Betfair for the stronger value.

Thanks mate. I will look into that as well.

Any tips on WHEN to check against Betchoice?

Why Betchoice? Does it give a good indication of market confidence?

Okay 1st selections:

My system:

BRDOOMBEN3	3, 6, 4	for 4, 3, 3 units
MRSANDOWN5	7, 6, 11	for 4, 3, 3 units

Outlay $20
Return
POI

Bagwan's suggestion:

BRDOOMBEN1	,4,,1,
BRDOOMBEN3	1,,,6,
BRDOOMBEN4	,3,,,
BRDOOMBEN6	,4,,8,
BRDOOMBEN7	,6,,3,
SRCANTERBURY1	8,,,11,
SRCANTERBURY3	,7,,,
SRCANTERBURY4	,,7,,
SRCANTERBURY6	,,,,8
SRCANTERBURY7	,4,,3,
MRSANDOWN1	,,2,,4
MRSANDOWN2	,,6,,
MRSANDOWN3	,,1,6,
MRSANDOWN4	,,9,1,5

Outlay $31.20 (24 selections at 1.3 units each)
Return
POI

I can't quite read it
 

My system:

BRDOOMBEN3 3, 6, 4 for 4, 3, 3 units
MRSANDOWN5 7, 6, 11 for 4, 3, 3 units

Is this how it goes?

Doomben Race 3
#3 4 Units
#6 3 Units
#4 3 Units

Sandown Race 5
#7 4 Units
#6 3 Units
#11 3 Units

Yes.

It's 3rd, 4th and 5th favourites weighted out based on their odds from the paper so either one will return a similar return.

Hi Max,

Good luck with your system.

A few questions

1. How do you decide between equal 5th favourites?
2. What paper's prepost market are you using, as markets can vary markedly?
3. Do you consider field size?

Interesting that you have Bhaggy's selections when Betchoice don't have prices up yet.

Try Try

1. How do you decide between equal 5th favourites? => If equal odds then I look at the recent starts
2. What paper's prepost market are you using, as markets can vary markedly? => I am using the Courier Mail because it is free for me most mornings and I am a set and forget sort of dude.
3. Do you consider field size? => no.

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Easy Mark! I am reading the screen wrong!

I'm a noob. I just went to the screen and assumed it was like TAB and looked at the column labelled Win Betting > Best Tote + SP. I am guessing this is the wrong column? he he

So what am I looking for on Betchoice website and when is the earliest to get it?

Hi max.

Think you will find betchoice markets wont come
up until about 20-30 minutes before each race.

This is because they are ON-COURSE prices.

If you want early prices go to mark reads I.A.S.

Saturdays however betchoice will come up in the morning after scratchings.

Saturday prices on mark reads I.A. S. are available friday night.

Cheers
garyf.

They come up about 15-20 minutes before each race under the column headed flucs.
Don't know where you're looking on Saturday's garyf, they are never up early on Betchoice, because as you say they are the "official" on course prices.

Betchoice prices do come up on metro meetings early saturday mark.

Check the site about 11.30-12.00 pm the fixed odds odds prices
are under the fixed odds column.

The flucts column will remain empty.

When the on course prices are available the flucts column
will open with the on-course prices.

The fixed odds column will then dissappear.

The fixed odds column will then come up
more in line with the opening prices.

Correct garyf, but they are not the prices Bhagwan was talking about.

Max .

Here are some more sights that come up early on sat metro meets.

1= Betchoice.

2= IAS.

3= bETSTAR

4= SPORTINGBET.

5= LLOYD MERLEHAN'S TOP-SPORT.

Wont be much between them in terms
of odds but will give you a good idea
of what to expect come race time.

Cheers
garyf.

Max.

You can use these or wait till the
official on coursecome up.

Think bhagwan said wait till the opening
price comes up.

Check both maybe but you will find
the order of fav.s will be much the same.

Only the odds will differ.

Would the odds and strike rate improve if you were to concentrate on "Good" track conditions only?
i.e Gawler is the only "Good TC " today.

Cheers and good luck.
darky

Results 2 from 2.

Days 1
Outlay $20.00
Return $47.10
POI 236%

A good start.

Good start, max.
I'm a bit concerned with the scratchings in B3.
Would you really still consider this race valid given that there were only four horses left?

Probably not but as I check the form via the newspaper at about 7am in the morning and then set and forget, it would still be included. It did return a profit anyhow and that is the main thing. Less runners means less risk but in this case I think I got lucky as the winner was 3rd fav and paid around $7. From my observation, less runners = more likely 1st fav will be low odds = more likely 3rd, 4th and 5th will extend out and pay more.

I stuffed up. I had no time Thursday to check the paper for selections until Thursday night, so I went through and worked the system and then worked out all that work was actually on Saturday's selections not Thursday. (*$^#ing Courier Mail!).

So here are Saturday's selections:

SRRANDWICK2	11, 4, 6	for 4, 3, 3 units
SRRANDWICK5	2, 7, 5	for 4, 3, 3 units
SRRANDWICK7	2, 4, 11	for 4, 3, 3 units
BREAGLEFARM6	1, 3, 8	for 4, 3, 3 units
MRCAULFIELD8	4, 1, 11	for 3, 3, 3 units

I selections for Thursday will be after the fact but I have not seen any results yet so hopefully I can get Thursday up soon.

hi, Sounds like a good approach similar to market forces strategy. From memory pre post market is pretty accurate as far as winners are concerned. Seen so many times when the pre post has a runner at evens an then they get up at $3-$4 on the tote.

what staking do you recommend with this? flat stakes may not be the best. money factory staking 5 point divisor is used in market forces (which I use) and works well.

Which paper is best to use for pre post? Sydney Morning Herald, Telegraph? who is the most accurate?

Luckily there were no selections for Thursday 21st April. No races qualified.

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Marksto, I have no idea about the papers. I just get the Courier Mail for free each morning so I use that one. I am not a very experienced punter. Never even been off the TAB.

I do use a plan in that the odds for the 3 selections in the race are weighed up so whichever wins, a similar return is achieved.

Can you please explain the staking plan you mention and I am a relative noob at punting.

Hi Max,
Can you say what defines a qualifying race before system is implemented?

I also get the Courier Mail free.
From the neighbours front lawn.

ah ha Bhagwan
I am your neighbour.
The penny drops
Beton

Bagwan, ha ha. I live in an apartment block that also houses a hotel and they always have a pile of papers in the foyer. A little stroll into the foyer each morning and voila, a free paper!

Regarding qualifying races, the 3rd fav has to be 6/1 or more, the 4th fav has to be 8/1 or more and the 5th fav has to be 10/1 or more.

Thanks Max,
That sounds logical enough .
Nice & simple , just the way I like it.

Results from Sat 23/4, 3 wins from 5 races:

Outlay 49 units
Return 126.80 units
Profit 77.80 units
S/R 60% (3 from 5)
POI 258%

TOTALS SO FAR:
Days 2
Outlay 69 units
Return 167.90 units
Profit 98.90 units
S/R 71% (5 from 7)
POI 243%

Well done Max.

Hi Max,

Youve picked a great place to start,the pre post is a consistent angle.

Consider the prices like ratings rather than a guide to what the market might look like and you wont make the mistake many make of thinking they are unreliable.

Its one of the more reliable ratings methods going around.

I agree with Dale here.

I use to be able to run 8 different types of ratings at one time & the Pre-post market had the highest SR when using the top 5 selections as a base test , than any ratings available.

Targeting top 5 ,returned -5% LOT using UniTAB prices.

Not bad when considering 5 runners a race was bet.
Delete the correct runner & your now in profit.

Top 6 pre post will win around 84% of all races,


An angle that might be worth pursuing is looking for big open races, leaving out the first 3 pre post favorites and betting the 4th,5th and 6th pre post.

This reminds me. I bought a system back in the 90's with a mate. I am actually still young by the way! That actually I think was called Financial Success System based on the Gold Coast of all places.

It actually just followed on a Sat and Wednesday the pre post favourite Mel, Syd, Bris and stopped at first winner for the day. Target based.

Won every day. Sometimes though the losses mounted as it was a target based. Not sure if anyone remembers this.

Hi Max,

Well done on your system so far.

Using different prepost markets obviously will throw up different selections - Melbourne Herald Sun gives different selections to Brisbane's Courier Mail hence I would not have backed your selections if I used the Herald Sun form guide.

What you have done is make me look closely at the 3rd, 4th and 5th favourites. At this stage I am only paper testing but results since 1st January 2011 are more than acceptable with some simple elimination rules it is possible to achieve a 50% race success rate and a 50% POT. This is for Saturday and Public Holiday Melbourne Metropolitan meetings betting $10 per race ($4,$3,$3).

Thanks for getting my grey matter working!

Thanks for the feedback guys.

No qualifying races for Wednesday 27 April.

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Dale. Interesting you should mention 6th favourite and the 84%. I have been tempted to expand my reading to the 6th favourite and get some stats on that. I may go back, otherwise I will begin that from tomorrow.

The whole idea is to get a few bets daily that return good money with an acceptable strike rate. This is done by using elimination rules which I drew the line at as 3rd at 6/1, 4th at 8/1 and 5th at 10/1.

If anyone else can suggest any other "eliminators", please throw them forth. I would love to refine it even more.

Once we get a great S/R, then I want to apply a staking plan to ready ramp up the returns and avoid any losses. This will be the next phase.

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Marko. Do you still have that system? Can you explain it or send it to me. I would love to compare it and check it out.

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Hi Try. I understand about the papers. The idea is to find the selections the day or morning before, lodge the bets and forget. The thing is, your selections may not be the same as mine. Does not mean you will not get the same results as you may win on a race I did not bet on or vice versa.

If anyone can suggest a better source for these morning odds, please add it in this thread.

Hi mark,
The chasing of Pre-post fav stopping at a winner is the oldest system around & a number of mobs tout it to this day.

The problem arises if one tries to bet those that are under $3.00 using a progression.

The bets go through the roof even betting to a 1000:1 ratio trying to win $1.00

The up side is that sometimes these PP Favs pay $10.00

A poster in another thread suggested I ignore any Maiden races and 2YO races. In my system to date, I have noted Maiden races but not if they were 2YO races. Luckily none of my selection races to date have been maidens. When I do check the results for Maidens only not using my race selection process, Maidens only returns a good profit. It may be something to watch. I did note however that the 1st Maiden I recorded had the 5th fav come in at $46 which helped with the figures. But one of those regularly could be good.

Sorry for being slack in updating this thread. I am still working on this system. Hoping to identify more ideas for filtering to increase average return and minimise losses.

I have other days to update you all on but have not had much time to throw them all up here but will do soon.

I have tidied up the selection process with strict rules now in that I only want to spend a max of $10 per selected race (with each selection rounded up) for a goal of earning $20 (100% profit). In reality most winning races are returning around $52 per win so there is some good buffer there even though my S/R so far is around 42%.

As for today, I have 1 selection:

2011 05 06 FRI CRWAGGAWAGGA8, numbers 9 for 4 units, 4 for 4 units, and 13 for 3 units Hope to have Saturdays selections up soon. I am also tracking more information on the races so I can look at other filters, such things as whether or not they are true Maiden races (i was categorising anything with horses with no starts as "Maiden"), distance, number of runners and race class. I am also tracking 6th favourite from now on as well. Any other thoughts you have would be greatly appreciated. Hoping to turn this little baby into a long term profitable system, but got a long way to go yet.

Race selections for Saturday May 7th:

2011 05 07 SAT QRGOLDCOAST1, numbers 3 for 5 units, 12 for 4 units, and 8 for 3 units

2011 05 07 SAT SRCANTERBURY3, numbers 2 for 4 units, 3 for 4 units, and 1 for 3 units

2011 05 07 SAT SRCANTERBURY7, numbers 5 for 5 units, 9 for 4 units, and 2 for 2 units

2011 05 07 SAT MRFLEMINGTON3, numbers 7 for 5 units, 2 for 4 units, and 5 for 3 units

2011 05 07 SAT MRFLEMINGTON5, numbers 6 for 5 units, 1 for 4 units, and 10 for 3 units

2011 05 07 SAT MRFLEMINGTON6, numbers 13 for 5 units, 6 for 3 units, and 5 for 3 units

Not sure about regional but: 2011 05 07 SAT BRIPSWICH8, numbers 7 for 4 units, 3 for 4 units, and 12 for 3 units

Wagga did no good today.

Here's hoping for tomorrow to make me proud.