OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums - Ratings2Win Home Track Advantage - Does it exist and can you profit from it?

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- - Ratings2Win Home Track Advantage - Does it exist and can you profit from it? (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=26905)

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26/09/2013 
17:23 ROCKY 6   4  Head High

Hi Paul,

I ran a home track test in Axis, and even in my limited data sample I can see where you are coming from, particularly IND horses. But did you notice the performance of a certain age group?

I decided to run this test in my bet selector data, Saturdays only, at least 1 career start, over the period Jan 2008 to Aug 2013:

Bets 3313
Wins 445
Outlay at NSW div: $47147 (proportional staking)
Return at NSW div: $48166
POT: 2.16%

Bears investigating further.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Raven

Hi Paul,

I ran a home track test in Axis, and even in my limited data sample I can see where you are coming from, particularly IND horses. But did you notice the performance of a certain age group?

Hi Raven

Yes having the ability to run system tests using the R2W propriety indicators is a valuable asset. For Axis users its easy however for anyone considering the product, one only has to go as far as our Recent Winning Highlights thread or our website to see how these perform. Indicators as you may not be aware are a group of horses that win around 52% of all races. They have an uncanny knack of landing longer priced winners even in the metro area.

Yes I did notice the performance of all age groups. There are many ways to improve the native results of this system including using our unique jockey ratings ad LWD ranks as you can see from the results.

For those wanting a better understanding of what our unique features are just click on the link below.

http://www.ratings2win.com.au/Downl...acteristics.pdf

Allowing for results up to the yesterday, the profit on a $10,000 bank betting proportionally on all the selections in the system has delivered a massive $20,505 profit. Of course that is only using SP/NSW tote which can obviously be easily bettered.

For those interested I have can forward the betting analysis. Send me an email paul@ratings2win.com.au

In terms of the Bet Selector results that you detail, obviously these are not based on the same system criteria, as Bet Selector is not capable of testing variables unique to R2W. I do grant however that perhaps the base theory of what I alluded to in the first post of this thread even in Bet Selector could be exploited albeit nowhere near the extent of what we provide for.

Thanks for taking the time to comment.

Code:

27/09/2013 
12:58 CANBE 1   4  Got The Goss         
14:08 CANBE 3   8  Alluring Belle       
15:55 CANBE 6   4  Fullerton            
17:05 GEESY 8   2  Jordan

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28/09/2013 
12:35 MORNI 1   4  Pearl Heart          
15:05 GOLD  5   1  Quick Witted         
16:25 GOLD  7   1  Rock Lane

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29/09/2013 
13:32 CALOU 2   2  It Wasnt Me          
15:52 CALOU 6   2  Sequaliscious        
16:30 CALOU 7   1  Auguste

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01/10/2013
No selections today

End of Month Summary

After 2 months of running the strike is 18.4% with a POT -33%

There is no hiding from the fact that currently this system is performing below par. With many a selection running second at the odds we need. That's punting.

Yeah.Wondering when you were going to get rid of it.
It wasnt doing you any favors by running it.

Mind you the Extermxxxxxxx is even worse.

Quote:

Originally Posted by darkydog2002

Yeah.Wondering when you were going to get rid of it.
It wasnt doing you any favors by running it.

Mind you the Extermxxxxxxx is even worse.

Hi darky

We are not getting rid of it, simply reporting the last two months results which are short term by nature.

Overall this strategy has still delivered a longer term strike rate of 27.8% and POT of 12.12% SP/NSW tote. This includes the impact of the last two months of draw-down. Those that derive a living from punting experience draw-down 85-95% of the year (between 310-347 days). So as to remove any doubt draw-down is simply a point at which you are somewhere below a previous bank high.