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I concur gentlemen. This thread is EXCEPTIONAL. Cheers LG |
Cheers, fellas :)
A new Order of Entry came out yesterday: https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2...ry-september-23 (and was linked from Racing Victoria's Spring Feature Race Conditions page, so no need to stalk their Twitter: https://www.racingvictoria.com.au/t...ture-conditions). Django Freedman is the only horse to have officially withdrawn so far, but more are on the way. Foremost of these is 2017 Cup placegetter Johannes Vermeer, who was also announced to be missing this Spring through injury. There was a little movement in the Order:
Finche similarly didn't gain a penalty for his win in the Kingston Town Stakes: being only 2000m, it wasn't an eligible race. No overseas runners gained a weight penalty either, which will buoy supporters of Il Paradiso, Ispolini and Magic Wand, among others. Horses of this ilk will have to enter quarantine on Thursday to make the second shipment of internationals. The first shipment is set to arrive this Saturday. Among them will be Gold Mount who recently had to process a name change with Racing Australia. He was still registered under his old name Primitivo. Caliburn is also now known as Te Akau Caliburn. His owners are confident that he'll be a strong candidate for the Cups next year but are having a throw at the stumps in 2019. He's anticipated to next run in the Bart Cummings for a ballot exemption. In major scratching news: Taylor Swift. Initially announced as Melbourne Cup Day entertainment, she soon withdrew citing a scheduling conflict. There was certainly some conflict in social media where she was part of a targeted campaign from both her fans with concerns over racing and gambling, as well as by animal rights activists. Racing Victoria have said they will refund any ticket purchases made expressly to see Swift. Sportsbet have a market for who will be announced as her replacement: the $3 favourite is Daryl Braithwaite with John Farnham ($4), Delta Goodrem ($5.50), Meat Loaf ($7), the winner of The Masked Singer Australia ($8.50) and Jimmy Barnes ($10) being the other frontrunners. In other entertainment news: Ride Like A Girl, the story of Michelle Payne's career and her win in the 2015 Melbourne Cup with 100-1 shot Prince of Penzance, will open in cinemas Thursday. If you do happen to go watch, check to see if your theatre is part of the My Cinema network (https://mycinema.com.au/locations-2/). They've a competition running where you can win $5000: https://fs2.formsite.com/MyCinema/r...girl/index.html Raheen House will have an Australian run ahead of the Melbourne Cup, per his trainer William Haggas. Plan A is the Caulfield Cup but, if he weren't able to make the final field, the Geelong Cup 4 days later is the backup. Raheen House was the $6 favourite in the Ebor Cup but could only manage a 9th placing 7L adrift of Mustajeer. Haggas says that he was lacking early pace which saw him running too far back. He also had concerns that the ground may have been too quick. First declarations are due next Tuesday on 1st October, after which I'll probably start on some horse profiles. |
It looks like the quarantine issue for those making the second shipment won't be determined until shortly before the plane takes off.
From Coolmore comes news that Il Paradiso, Hunting Horn and Magic Wand have entered quarantine BUT they'll use this 2-week quarantine period to determine if/how many of them will actually be coming. Rob Archibald, Coolmore's racing manager and nominations, said a decision could be left to within days of the flight out of Ireland. Also into quarantine is former Coolmore stayer Southern France who will be looked after by Ciaron Maher and David Eustace on arrival. Melbourne Cup nominees racing over the next few days:
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Results from Melbourne Cup nominees the past few days:
The number listed is as per the latest Order of Entry. First declarations are due on Tuesday. |
The first shipment of Europeans arrived this weekend, including Melbourne Cup nomineees:
Mirage Dancer9 Constantinople11 Mustajeer15 Red Verdon33 Raymond Tusk34 Gold Mount35 Torcedor42 Prince of Arran48 True Self53 Raheen House55 Red Galileo56 Haky71 Cape Of Good HopeYTPFBC On Tuesday, arriving from Japan are: Lys de Gracieux2 Mer De GlaceYTPFBC The second wave of internationals are in quarantine and set for arrival on October 12th: Cross Counter4 Marmelo6 Southern France8 Master Of Reality10 Il Paradiso12 Latrobe13 Ispolini18 Magic Wand20 Hunting Horn21 Twilight Payment22 Downdraft47 Norway74 That means that there is NO: Kew Gardens3 Dashing Willoghby23 Technician25 Buckhurst26 Morando28 Desert Skyline50 Barsanti72 Stivers76 Bin Battuta85 Western Australia89 Meiner WunschYTPFBC Mountain HunterYTPFBC EminenceYTPFBC Mount EverestYTPFBC South PacificYTPFBC |
Down to 79 horses following First Acceptances:
https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2...1st-acceptances |
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There's actually 80 left after First Acceptances: The Good Fight was omitted in error. Updated First Acceptors list Updated Order of Entry |
walkermac, some of the ones i'll be taking a look at more closely soon include:
Steel Prince Southern France Constantinople Il Paradiso Ispolini Raymond Tusk They appear to be the ones that meet my early criteria the best, not sure if you've got any initial thoughts on those 6 runners. I'm thinking i'll start getting some futures bets on soon and make use of some odds boosts where I can as well. From memory usually a horse or two performs well in one of the leadup races and people get overly excited and sometimes crunch those odds in and they generally fall flat in the big race. I also noticed there seems to be a lot of horses this year that have run in the melbourne cup previously, which rarely end up winning it a second time around. |
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If the race were today and I had to make a snap decision I'd probably be most interested in Ispolini and Finche, then Master of Reality and Constantinople. But I'm prepared to throw them out entirely as I look deeper into each one as intended. So we have a little bit of crossover with our respective early fancies. I was very keen on Il Paradiso but find I have to keep making excuses: doubts on the strength of that Lonsdale Cup run (small field, half of them bled, Stradivarius said to only do "enough" for his wins), his unimpressive performance last race, not having won any blacktype... If all the positive presumptions you need to make are true, then he's a great chance for sure though. I think the Ebor is very good form this year: the prizemoney was increased so the field was stronger and it was run in very fast time, if memory serves. Raymond Tusk was thought to have had an unlucky run but also doesn't have a good head-to-head record against a lot of other Cup candidates currently at longer odds. Southern France would be challenging, especially given recent performances alongside Master of Reality and Cross Counter but I think is handicapped a kg or two heavier than ideal. Steel Prince I would like to see against some internationals to line up form with but, with 8 wins locally appears to be pretty well known by the handicapper and much of his success has been during the leaner months of the racing season. |
Here are the Melbourne Cup nominees racing across this long weekend. Most attention will be on the Bart Cummings where the winner will earn ballot exemption. Probably the most interesting race though is the Turnbull Stakes.
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