Results: March 18th
 

Almost recouped all of the previous nights "accidents". Hard to get on some as they started a little long.

Date-Time Course - Name
20070318-0100 Carlisle - Euro American ... WON -3.50
20070318-0120 Fontwell - Rockwithacaveman ... LOST +1.00
20070318-0120 Fontwell - Storm Prince ... LOST +1.00
20070318-0130 Carlisle - Cavers Glen ... LOST +1.00
20070318-0130 Carlisle - Ocarina ... LOST +1.00
20070318-0330 Fontwell - Notanotherdonkey ... LOST +1.00
20070318-0330 Fontwell - Precious Bane ... LOST +1.00
20070318-0430 Fontwell - River Amora ... LOST +1.00
20070318-0430 Fontwell - Lorrelini ... LOST +1.00
20070318-0430 Fontwell - Just Muckin Around ... LOST +1.00

===
RESULTS: March 6th - March 18th

Pixie:
===
Number of Selections: 80
Successful Selections: 69
Strike Rate: 86.25%
Profit: +18.17 units
Commission @ 5%: -3.45 units
Net Profit: +14.72 units
Net POT: 18.40%

Daily Donkey:
===
Number of Selections: 398
Successful Selections: 304
Strike Rate: 76.38%
Profit: +33.58 units
Commission @ 5%: -18.38 units
Net Profit: +15.20 units
Net POT: 3.81%

Didn't say that to be critical. Just stating the obvious I guess!!

You did well last night.

I went to bed. Had 'walked the Bridge' (wonder how many forumites were there too?) and was pretty tired. Had had a long day even before that.

Keep on thinking about Maria's ideas. I am certain that she said that you had to average something like 85% to make a success of it --- using her suggested betting 'bands'. You are managing that O.K.. You would get a lot more bets in that way?!?!

P.S. Very impressed by the thumbnails. Will have to give us all a lesson on how to do them one day

Merriguy, I didn't think you were being critical. :)

I work in an environment where peer review is standard and expected practice. Where sweeping statements need to be supported by hard won data, and where everyone has a theory that they're sure is better than your's. You know, kind of what it's like around here ;)



Yes I read this in Maria's thread too. I've also read it somewhere else where the guy provided a neat little equation as to why all lay methods should aim for at least 85% strike rate. Wish I'd have saved it because I've completely forgotton where it's found.

PS: I was a week ahead of myself when I said last night this thread had a week to go. I'll be finishing the thread on March 31st, and will go loud with the method from April 1st onwards. Something appeals to me about starting things on April Fool's Day.

PPS: JPG's by SnagIT. An absolute must have. http://www.techsmith.com/snagit.asp

Selections: March 19th
 

Good luck :)

Date-Time Course - Name
20070319-0100 Wincanton- Shankly Bond
20070319-0130 Wincanton- High Calibre
20070319-0140 Market Rasen - Nortonthorpe Lad
20070319-0140 Market Rasen - Only Words
20070319-0300 Wincanton - Petit Lord
20070319-0310 Market Rasen - Kercabellec

5/6 --- not bad! It is when one bad pick wipes your winnings that this laying caper makes me mad.

Thanks for the Snagit lead. Appreciated.

Results: March 19th
 

Small profit overnight. Full Daily Donkey doing very well at the moment but above average so beware. Looking for an all green day from us soon.

Date-Time Course - Name
20070319-0100 Wincanton- Shankly Bond ... LOST +1.00
20070319-0130 Wincanton- High Calibre ... LOST +1.00
20070319-0140 Market Rasen - Nortonthorpe Lad ... LOST +1.00
20070319-0140 Market Rasen - Only Words ... LOST +1.00
20070319-0300 Wincanton - Petit Lord ... LOST +1.00
20070319-0310 Market Rasen - Kercabellec ... WON -4.00

===
RESULTS: March 6th - March 19th

Pixie:
===
Number of Selections: 86
Successful Selections: 74
Strike Rate: 86.04%
Profit: +19.17 units
Commission @ 5%: -3.70 units
Net Profit: +15.47 units
Net POT: 17.98%

Daily Donkey:
===
Number of Selections: 436
Successful Selections: 333
Strike Rate: 76.37%
Profit: +38.70 units*
Commission @ 5%: -16.65 units*
Net Profit: +22.05 units*
Net POT: 5.05%*

*These figures have been revised down due to me making a silly spreadsheet error. Sorry about that. Too many late night I think..

I know. 5 steps forward, 4 steps back. I'm used to it from running my Oz lay method for 18 months. We should finish the month with an ok profit I think. We'll beat the Daily Donkey on POT, but we are leaving them a few profitable selections at the moment :( Might do just as well with a pin and a blindfold.

Have you noticed that most of our accidents have been expensive ones?

Selections: March 20th
 

Sorry bit late putting these up tonight. Best of luck.

Date-Time Course - Name
20070320-0110 Warwick - Just Supposin
20070320-0120 Exeter - Another Gale
20070320-0240 Warwick - Rowdy Yeats
20070320-0250 Exeter - Anshabil
20070320-0310 Warwick - Ceoperk
20070320-0330 Southwell - Macademy Royal

Hi AP,

Congratulations on your revised method.
It looks to be working well.
Have you experimented with prices at all?
The key to any lay method is getting as close to the lowest lay price available.
I always have to bear in mind that Betfair usually pays substantially better odds overall, so there is a bit of an art in getting the shortest odds you can.

Hi Chrome. Thanks things are going along ok I think. I'm pleased that I'm able to use a similar selection technique to my current Oz lay method, although I've a higher strike rate in Oz.



Yes that's basically what I'm doing at present. I'm only placing small lays to just feel out the edges of the price moves. Some guys on another forum have done some interesting work on converting SP prices to BF prices. They're using three equations for three different price bands. I'll have a chance to look over those this weekend I hope.

How's things with you?