Example files
 

Here are two xls files to show the diff. between increasing the losing bet by 1.5 and 1.6.
This is on favoreds on the TAB!
The last two columns are relevant here, the last one is the cumulative return, the sec. last one is the amount bet.
Before that, is the cumulative return for one unit.
Remember the minimum bet on the TAB is $3.00!!! I work on one unit!
This is for the month of Sep. 2007.
You can see how far the draw-down can go, and how much you have to bet just on the one unit basis.
Hope it sobers up some people.
Cheers

Yeah, bet $10,000 to win $10 on a favourite.

The favourite might be a 4/1 favourite and you are backing it at odds of less than $1.01, that's why it doesn't work, you are ensuring the worst possible value on the largest bets.

Well, I rekon that longshot system I posted where you select a couple of horses showing half decent odds that have won previously might be good. Maybe only bet them if the horse showing good value in the odds has a certain jockey and trainer combo. The logic being you are putting your money on the jockey & trainer since they have shown good form as well as the horse.

Since its been mentioned thats more often than not horses don't win again after winning, since its got good odds for a win, place bet instead of win bet since the place bet should be good value to.

FYI

A quick look at the non-maiden races today at Mornington has 2 out of the 4 races been won by a horse that won its last race. Both of those winners returning >$9 for a win..

There might still be a profit to be made in a system backing a horse showing odds of $9+ that placed 1st in its last start?

Granted the sample size is quite small :). So i'm going to track the winners for a week and see how many out of how many races were winners in their last race.

This in my humble opinion is complete trickery.

Since when does any punter take odds of $1.01 about a $5.00 horse?

NEVER.

If $10,000 is wagered on a horse at $5.00, then the odds for that wager ARE $5.00, NOT $1.01!!!

The amount of a wager needed to recover past losses, whether the wager is $5 or $5,000, DOES NOT alter the odds obtained by that wager on a horse.

Well you've just shown that any credence to your method has no merit.
You cannot concieve the basics of odds so how can you expect to turn a loss into a profit???


I bet $10,000 to win $10 that's a lot less than 4/1

It doesn't matter what they pay me, if after all those losses I make a measley $10.00

Effective odds is what you're getting!

Again trickery in the use of the word "win".

The effective odds are what you get, not lower than what you get! If you back a horse at 4/1 those ARE the effective odds you get on the wager.

But if we used your word trickery method, then if we are level staking with $100 bets and are down $1000 and back a $5.00 winner the "effective odds" of that bet would not be $5.00 BUT instead "minus $7.00" because we would still be down $600 after the winner!!!!!!

The only person you are tricking is yourself.
It is a lot different level stakes and you know it, or at least I hope you do.
I can't argue with someone who cannot grasp the basics.
Crash and I have had our moments, but at least he argues logic, and I respect him for it.
I can't respect this illogical and uninformed train of thought.
I'm out.

It just dawned on me...you are Bert :D

plenty of "sane" people do have the cash required & the balls to have a go, my old mate is a perfect example

the 1st time i witnessed his doubling up prowess i recall being stunned to put it mildly, & the old ************ did clean up that day. from memory he kept that run going for a couple of weeks, winning every day at the casino &/or tab, then gave it all back + his stake & more within a couple hours

fun? for some who can genuinely afford it
lose the job/house/wife/kids? for the rest who cant

I remember a bloke who came into a fair chunk of money. He went from a two bit player like most of us here, to an overnight 'pro'. using a progressive staking method. His opinion on everything racing including punting methods [in his eyes], was from then on better than anyone else's because he now considered himself a 'pro'.
At the track every week playing with the big boys and betting big bets etc. About 4-6 weeks later he was obviously broke, no longer went to the track and had become a $2 place punter. Don't see him around nowadays.

I had an uncle who thought it was easy, he chucked in his job and started to bet full time using a similar idea.

His plan was to win $200 a day 6 days a week backing favs, his plan was to bet to prices to win his $200 plus losses for the day.

A day at Warwick Farm with no favs getting up wiped out his bank plus more took him a while to get another job.

I don't think he started with a large bank, i remember dad telling me the family lived the high life for a couple of months untill it all crashed then they were luck if they could afford the mortgage each month.

Don't get fooled before you start putting real cash down do some research and paper testing for 6 months, this goes for any method.

yawn

....topic sorta seems to go around every site....every few months. Nearly joined one the other week until i was asked to pay for the priviledge, cant say they would would have let this thing keep going though........... 1 of the 5 members over there would have pulled it for sure.....with a little given on the side of course.

I went back in threads and geez there were heaps of post-ers in here once.....these sort of threads just drag people away i spose?

x-mas, indian batting and the gold system thread.....will be lucky if my head doesnt drop from the excit mipwerogni9ewr0[nhe0[wghh80bv0[earn8b0eb80nebn[e0ar[rn8b0[ernabe890ab0[aner-9vg]jwvfgo9nuhers0njh0[wenh83u9-2?oiweuiouionioer9089rgnionio890wefjkopfaopwqusank lxcznmbcnmbjopsdfopjjjiowe jhiottttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttt

Sorry, must be nap time again.

I don't think what Im quoting from you is correct King Cugat. This thred has already had over 90 posts and more than 2,500 views. I've also enjoyed reading it.

Marcus, what have you learnt?

You musta got your copy of the free system before they ran out.

If you put a dollar on every $26 chance in the paper you will eventually get one. you will find that a $26 chance comes up in at least 1 in 25 times, so you will make a profit at least. try it and see.

No mate, 3% strike rate
21.79% loss on turnover

If anyone is going to bet blind like that [27 bets trying to strike a winner at $27]. May as well back the favorites of a meetings first 3 races. They usually have the smallest fields, no great odds but a good chance winning or losing ...just a little.

I have been away for a while and have only just read this thread, but I just wanted to give King Cugat the thumbs up for some of his work early on in this thread. Comedy Gold, had me laughing, keep it up can never get enough laughs.

.

i wouldnt knock the thread. it is voluntary. a good idea may come up but remember that we are talking about gambling.

i refer to the "gold system" that i threw into the ring on wednesday the problem with systems is you have to run them and attend to them all the time. going on past records is misleading as it assumes you were paying attention when they were running.

in my case last week i backed conquering in hobart and i worked launceston racing for last wednesday but forgot to print it and back the meeting.
the first time conquering paid $12 - on wednesday it won its next start at $18. but i was in the car listening to the races.

that is the difficulty with systems we tend to do it at our convenience - just enjoy the odd win and not try to make a meal of it.

Can someone please answer the following:
How many bets are needed before you can confidently say your system makes a profit? 10, 100, 1000? Or more? Now on top of that what odds do you use? Your home state tote? Best tote? Bookies starting price? Bookies top fluctuation?

It is not the number of bets that reflect the stability or viability of a system, well it is, but in conjunction with other indicators.

You need to consider:
Strike rate
Average Dividend
Maximum Dividend
Profit divided by the Maximum dividend

Most important is the ratio of winners making up the profit.

The odds you use are the odds you plan to use.

It's no good with 1000 selections and one of your winners was 500/1
However you might have 1,000 selections and the maximum winner was $5.00

It's a whole different outcome.

I don't use number of bets per se, I split it into years and look at the profit for each year, if a system makes a profit every year, it's a good'un :D

Good observation CP!
The end of year result is the most important but also you have to have at least over 40 bets a month (betting on met. races only).
You also have to break down your betting results at least into monthly chunks, you have a much better understanding then, of how you are traveling.
No use getting all your profit in one month, even if the year was in the black!
I am treading water in Feb. would go backwards in March, (if I persisted with my main handicapping-rating)
Sept. and Oct. are the most profitable, and I'd loved to know, why, two month would be bad, two excellent, and the rest just good?
Cheers

Are you asking about where to bet OR where do you go to backtrack past divies?

If the 1st (and you can go back and check via tab sites with extra time anyway): Disable, Bin, Eliminate, Close all TAB accounts. You cannot win long term unless you have 1 of an all-mighty system.
Go to Sporstsbet.com.au and get the best of the 3 states as a starter until you understand what your selections are bringing you and then what you expect from them.
From your previous posts you seem to be a high strike rate low divie man. Which is what i am only place betting so its a lot easier expectation wise as the margin bands is smaller.
I know what i should be getting as dividends from the 3 states before they cross the line.
I expect:
1 of the 3 atleast to be right on my expectations,
one to be below because its carrying a little extra weight by means of support on the individual race or carry overs from all ups etc.
The 3rd one i expect to exceed my expectations for no reason other then they went a little easier on it.
After all this time i can now sit on betfair and match a price that i believe will be that of the 1st or 3rd one >>> be on or exceed my expectations from the best tote. << This is something you can only get through experiance with your own individual system....again...based on knowing over time what you expect. Nobody can teach you this. Its gut instinct.
If i dont see what i like then i go best of 3 and know the odds are, that i will get that over expectation dividend....maybe not on a particular race but long term. Theres a percentage of my POT that's a little extra because of knowing what my expectations are and looking for that + more.
Yesterday Dark Target in Ascot paid $1.04 / $1.04 / $1.50 unitab. I expected to get $1.20. i would have taken $1.25 - $1.30+ on betfair. As it turned out 2 totes were below my expectations but unitab was over well and truly. The same for a few others like Sweet Julia $1.40 / $1.40 vic $1.90. i was expecting $1.50 tote and would take betfair at $1.50+ to secure it.
At the end of the day you must know your system back the front, know what divies you need + want, sit on a best of the 3 site on the 2nd last page before process screen ready incase your betfair expectations arent met.
Chrome knows how to answer your other question about how many bets gone through until you think you have something......
I use moving average bands myself just like the sharemarket. Not only can they help in knowing when your due or can expect a pull back, but can also tell you where your system should sit, or if a new system where it looks like its going to sit.

One way to analyse a system's viability is to have 3 or more lots of 150 batches of bets.
If it makes a profit in one lot but breaks nearly even on the other 2 batches it tells us there is some potential.

Another way is to break up the stats over odd & even numberered races .
This will tell us if there is a major disparity in the results.

If there is a huge difference , it tells us that the overall results may have been an annomily & needs futher working..

It's a strong idea to have the stats over 4-5 years.
I have seen systems work brilliantly, say over 3 years only to see it fall in a heap in the 4th year.

If one can get the SR consistant over that period , the next challenge is trying & seek the best prices.
Trying to squeeze a profit using single TAB prices is very difficult longterm, compared to best of 3 TOTS e.g. Sportsbet or Betfair or Bookies.

Its a strong idea to have a min. price acceptable.

After using Betfair, one will see how much we have been ripped by the TABs.
all these years.

If one is using multiple systems , I have found it more profitable , not to double up on selections already selected by the other systems.
The reason being is, if a horse is selected say 3 times, it does not mean that it has 3 times the chance of winning so why place 3 times the amount of money & risk on it.

I feel it is important to try & strive for a consistant SR first, of approx 22-25% if win betting with some profit, any less & one must be prepared for long runs of outs of 30+.
The profit will always vary, month to month, that's why it is so important to use a medium that can maximise a price that is better than a single TAB.

Cheers.

System that make a profit for three years and then fall in a hole in the fourth are faulty in some way, the results look good, but they don't check out the viability correctly.
PPM are the biggest perpetrators(?) of this.
Sometimes the distribution of winners by price range are completely out of whack and this is a big flag to backfitted systems.
The other is when you have Miss Finland rated at 400/1 and it wins easily at odds on. :D
A very big warning sign, that a whole bunch chose to ignore.

Hi Iomaca,
SQUARE ROOT STAKING PLAN
Heres a staking plan that you might like to run your figures over.
I call it the Square Root staking plan.
The idea is to go up one unit after each looser & restart once any profit is made.

If a winner is struck which does not clear the slate , one uses the calculator to input the total current loss, then hit the Square Root key.
This is now the next bet amount to be placed before we start going up the ladder again until the next winner.
Bank needed $1200
Example.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11w(3.00)
Loss currently $25 after winner, now hit square root key = 5 units is now the next bet then 6, 7, 8, ect. until another winner gets up.
Keep doing this until 2+ units in front, then start again.

This should show a profit where normally a LOT is shown.

I have found its a good idea to stop betting for the day, if 9 losers in a row presents itself on the day.
Then continue where one left of the next day.
Try & only target races where the Fav is paying $2.80+

The bets will ususlly stay in control without having to outlay huge bet amounts to make it recover.

Cheers.

Chrome,


You talk about ratio of winners. What sort of number should one be looking for?

Happy New Year

complications
 

i go dizzy looking at the contortions being used to punt.
surely the systems and punting methods themselves have a downside effect on good punting.

i have found that it is almost impossible to follow a system due to many situations such as work, tab not operating. e.g. i had the winner of the kalgoorlie cup ready to punt but the tasmanian tab decided not to operate on kalgoorlie that day. it won at $55.
then we forget the race, the phone rings, the wife want something done etc.

dont become captive to your system and seek a more direct approach of selections.
good luck but the system would stop me before the horses get to the starting gate.

Divide the profit by the average win dividend, you'd be looking at a minimum of ten making up the profit.

But, divide it again by the maximum dividend and if you get a small number, it's pretty shaky.

The more the better.

Thought I would add some real results to this thread (and to boast).

I devised an approriate staking method for a new system I started running a few days ago (started on the 28th Dec).

Since starting to place actual bets level stakes shows the profit to be a loss of 2%. The staking plan I am using is showing a profit of 700% ( i think that is right).

I have turned a test bank(real money) of $100 into over $7000 in the last few days.. real money not play money ....

I have moved away from trying to be right 100% of the time and have been concentrating on staking. To me getting the correct staking plan is MORE important then working out better ways of selecting the winners.

Good Luck.

can you post your selections?

I assume you mean selections to date. Here they are.

28th Dec
Wagga R1 - Inside Fifty - 2nd
Coffs Harbour R3 - Grenades - LOST

29th Dec
Corowa R3 - Pyang - 2nd
Rosehill R1 - Why're You Waiting -2nd
Stony Creek R1 - Threatened - 2nd
Doomben R1 - King Leonidas - 2nd
Rosehill R2 - Guillotine - WIN
Mooney Valley R3 - The Fonz - 2nd
Gawler R2 - Planet Ice - WIN
Gold Coast R3 - Headlight - WIN
Rockhampton R1 - Jusforsatisfaction - WIN
Ascot R6 - Lambton Castle - 2nd
Gold Coast R5 - Tears'n'cheers - WIN
Kembla Grange R6 - Thebe - WIN
Gold Coast R6 - Line By Line - 3rd
Rockhampton R5 - Danzamonkey - WIN

30th Dec
cranbourne Rce 2 - Dance Of Danes - WIN
scone Rce 2 - Ready To Impress - 2nd
Hobart Rce 8 - Urban Waltz - WIN

31st Dec
Echuca R4 - Melbachenko WIN
Echuca R5 - De Mars WIN

1st Jan
Inverall R1 - Admiral Nediym - 2nd
Mornington R5 - Stage Presence - WIN

2nd Jan
Eagle Farm R1 - Pashionately Yours - WIN
Seymour R2 - Hay Lover - 2nd
Wyong R2 - Sportsground - 2nd
Wyong R4 - Hidden Assets - 2nd
Eagle Farm R7 - Rockem - WIN

I won't be giving out selections before the date .... why would I because how do I benefit from giving them out .... They are going to lose on level stakes (-2%) and people would complain.

If you check out the above selections you will probably work out the main factors being looked at anyway and any decent handicapper would have come up with similar selections.

Good Luck.

I think 'any decent handicapper' would probably disagree with you there. 14 winners from 27 bets is a SR of more than 50% winners along with almost a 100% place SR !


I don't know the prices, but I can only see a win system not a loss system, unless of course you had a complete reversal of selection ability from hopeless to genius handicapper/system creator.

Even if the winners were only paying $2 you would still be in front, but I'm sure they were mostly paying more than that.

From 29th Dec. Rosehill r2 to 1st Jan. you had a outstanding SR of 12 winners from 17 bets that were all e/w winners as well !

As a place system you had only 1 loss from 27 bets. Another remarkable selection achievement for any punter and the results from 27 bets is a bit beyond the reach of punting luck.

If you can keep it up [or anywhere near it] you have a license to print money, regardless how you stake your bets.

Well done!

I should add of course that if you meant a -2% loss on the above selections, it probably means that most of your winners were odds-on or close to it. Regardless though, a remarkable strike rate of winners and place getters!

Of course you are right, Crash, and if you go back through the selections Wes has kindly provided you will see that most are odds on or close to it.

It reminds me of some posts in the Ausrace forum from some years ago (a number of people on this forum would remember what I am referring to). There was a guy there who maintained that he could come out way ahead with a progression system (for the place in his case). He was howled down over and over again; but he held on to his belief, and probably is still doing it despite the fact "that it can't be done". In his figures you only had to have a 67% strike rate for the place to be a winner.

Must try it again!!!

crash, Merriguy,

Yes most of the winners are odds on. The 2% loss is on unitab figures so best tote or betfair would push this into profit ( I looked at betfair and it made it roughly a 10% profit).

The thing to remember is they are NOT all odds on selections. They are p[ut through filters to eliminate false favs. The filters are faily easy to work out too as there are not too many.

I suspect this run of selections has been a bit lucky but you need luck every once in a while.

Good Luck.

Well I think wesmip1 should just keep doing what he is doing. Whatever progressive staking system he is using he is making money with his incredible win and/or place strike rate.

I did check the prices and for the win there was a small loss, for the place only a reasonable profit and for e/w a tiny profit. 0.3 of a unit. so the win only is a loss at level stakes.

wesmip1

Do you mind if i ask what form guide you use to make thos selections?