OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums - Ratings2Win Home Track Advantage - Does it exist and can you profit from it?

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- - Ratings2Win Home Track Advantage - Does it exist and can you profit from it? (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=26905)

Michal

28th October 2013 07:35 AM

Code:

28/10/2013 
14:32 SCONE 3   11 Raweesha
17:02 SCONE 7   3  Double Five

Michal

29th October 2013 08:26 AM

Code:

29/10/2013
No selections

Michal

30th October 2013 08:44 AM

Code:

30/10/2013 
17:20 BENDI 10  1  Churchill Express

Michal

1st November 2013 08:56 AM

Code:

01/11/2013 
18:00 WODON 8   10 Sahara Night

pgra	1st November 2013 07:26 PM

Home track advantage is there for Sat metro its just a case of using the right ratings.For the last 2 years i have had 147 bets for 50% strike 13% pot unitab

PaulD01

2nd November 2013 08:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pgra

Home track advantage is there for Sat metro its just a case of using the right ratings.For the last 2 years i have had 147 bets for 50% strike 13% pot unitab

Hi pgra,

Welcome to the forum. The 13% POT that you have achieved is within the normal range of variance (2 lines of deviation applied) which is -8.1% LOT to 28.1% POT for this number of bets, assuming a strike rate of 50% and a 10% profit edge.

The problems associated with only having 147 bets over a 2 year period is that you could be losing 8.1% on turnover ($1,916 on a $10,000 starting bank). The real question is whether you or anyone could continue to bet after showing a loss at the end of 2 years. These calculations of course assume that you have a 10% edge in the first place which you could not possibly know with such as small sample.

In terms of whether a home track advantage exists within the metropolitan area, the numbers do not support that it does.

Michal

2nd November 2013 08:38 AM

Code:

02/11/2013 
13:45 GOLD  2   2  Cheval Du Feu  
14:42 DUBBO 2   4  Sharky 
15:27 DUBBO 3   9  Speedreader
16:00 GOLD  5   3  Sand Biscuit 
17:37 DUBBO 6   1  Glory Man

PaulD01

2nd November 2013 10:40 AM

October Results for R2W Home Track Advantage

Code:

TEST RESULTS for System - R2W HOME TRACK ADVANTAGE
Date Range   - 01/10/2013 to 31/10/2013   Period of Days - 31
Price Option - Best of SP and NSW

WIN STATISTICS   Value    Bets   Wins   SR      Collect         Avg       POT       Profit          Outs  

                 Races    65     16     24.6%   $68.35          $4.30     5.15%     $3.35           13    
                 Horses   65     16     24.6%   $68.35          $4.30     5.15%     $3.35           NA

Michal

3rd November 2013 09:04 AM

Code:

03/11/2013
15:40 MUSWE 4   5  Crown Of Dreams
17:26 MUSWE 7   3  Binalong Road
18:10 ALBAN 3   2  Mr African
19:20 ALBAN 5   8  Blackwall Reach

Michal

4th November 2013 08:14 AM

Code:

04/11/2013 
17:35 BALLN 8   2  Fast Take

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